000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220401 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 12.5N 101.3W at 21/2100 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Celia remains under vertical northeast-northeast shear as noted by the low-level circulation appearing rather stretched in a northeast to southwest direction. Latest satellite imagery shows a large flare up of very deep numerous strong convection within 300 nm of the center in the SW and within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from from 08N to 14N between 105W-110W. Celia is expected to continue on its current motion through through Fri, with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Additional strengthening is expected, and Celia is forecast to become a hurricane on Thu. Swells will begin to increase along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and spread northward along the coast through Thu. Swells could also reach southern portions of the Baja California peninsula by Fri. These conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 13.0N 101.9W at 22/0300 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted west of the center from 11N to 14N between 101W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 98W and 114W. Peak seas are currently 12 ft. Celia is expected to continue moving west- northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed through Friday. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next two to three days, and Celia is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 93W north of 08N to across the border between Guatemala and Mexico. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 100 nm either side of the wave from 08N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 13N97W and then from 14N115W to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends from 10N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 84W and 91W and from 07N to 13N between 116W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia currently located about 310 nm south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The remnant low of Blas is centered near 19N115W, or about 380 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, with a pressure of 1008 mb. It is slowly moving westward. Visible imagery depicts the low as a swirl of broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds from 16N to 22N between 114-118W. Isolated showers are possible within these clouds. Winds around the low are about 20 kt with seas to 8 ft. The low is forecast to gradually weaken to a trough as it moves in a westward motion over the next couple of days. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection moving westward is from 13N to 17N between 99W-104W. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate northwest to north winds are noted off the Baja California offshores. Light to gentle winds are noted across the Gulf of California and throughout the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. Northwest swell is propagating through the water offshore extreme northern Baja California offshore waters, producing seas to 8 ft. Seas ranging 5-7 ft are noted across the the rest of the Baja California offshores. Outside of Celia, seas range 4-6 ft across the southern Mexico offshore waters and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through the rest of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected return near the Baja California coast by Wed night through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will moderate north to northeast winds on Wed. Fresh to strong northwest winds will return to the Gulf by Thu morning through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 300 nm southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshores in the wake of Celia. Moderate southerly winds are noted along and east of the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, generally light to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the Central American and Colombian offshore waters with seas ranging 4-6 ft. Mixed swell is noted off the Guatemala and El Salvador offshores with southerly swell across the rest of the area. This swell will decay late tonight. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue over the next few days across the Central American and Colombian offshore waters. The Gulf of Papagayo will pulse moderate to locally fresh tonight and Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will continue offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the rest of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is present north of 18N and west of 120W. The associated gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is allowing for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds along with seas of 5-8 ft north of 08N and W of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate south to southwest winds are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas to 8 ft in swell generated by Blas are over the waters from 18N to 22N between 114W-117W. Northerly swell is also beginning to move across the northern forecast waters north of about 28N and between 122W- 134W, with seas to 8 ft. By late Wed, this area will shift westward to west of 127W, with seas to 10 ft in NE swell. Swell producing seas to 8 ft are also noted across the western waters, from 8N to 26N and W of 130W An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is west-southwest of Celia from 06N to 10N between 104W-109W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters during the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge through Wed night. As the ridge weakens, winds will become light to gentle by Wed and continue through the rest of the week. The northwest swell impacting the northeastern forecast waters will propagate westward over the next few days. The 8 ft seas will remain north of 27N as they shift from 120W to 140W through Thu night. Long- period primarily southwest swell just south of the Equator between 104W-129W will subside Wed afternoon. The northeast swell in the western waters will subside by early Wed afternoon. $$ AKR