000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211521 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 11.6N 99.5W at 21/1500 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows a large flare-up of very deep numerous strong convection within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant and within 150 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong convection in pulsing fashion is seen from 07N to 14N between 103W-109W. Celia is expected to turn toward the west-northwest by tonight, and that motion should continue during the next few days. Slow strengthening is expected, and Celia is forecast to become a hurricane in a few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 91W north of 02N to across western Guatemala and the western side of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered small clusters of moderate convection are within 180 nm east of the wave from 07N to 13N, and within 180 nm west of the wave from 08N to 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N107W to 09N119W to 07N133W. The ITCZ extends from 07N133W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ and monsoon trough between 107W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia currently located about 300 nm southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. The remnant low of Blas is centered near 19N115W, or about 380 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, with a pressure of 1007 mb. It is slowly moving westward. First visible imagery depicts the low as a swirl of broken to overcast low and mid- level clouds from 16N to 22N between 114-118W. Isolated showers are possible within these clouds. Winds around the low are about 20 kt with seas to 8 ft. The low is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves in a westward motion over the next couple of days, reaching near 20N116W this afternoon, with winds and seas improving around the low by this morning. It is expected to become a trough on Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate N to NW winds are noted off the Baja California offshores. Fresh to strong NE winds are across the western half of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are noted across the Gulf of California and throughout the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. Northwest swell is propagating through the water offshore extreme northern Baja California offshore waters, producing seas to 8 ft. Seas ranging 5-7 ft are noted across the the rest of the Baja California offshores. Outside of Celia, seas range 4-6 ft across the southern Mexico offshore waters and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through the rest of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected return near the Baja California coast by Wed night through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will become moderate to fresh this morning. Fresh to strong northwest winds will return to the Gulf by Thu morning through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 300 nm southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are noted in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshores in response to Celia. Moderate southerly winds are noted along and east of the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the Central American and Colombian offshore waters with seas ranging 4-6 ft. Mixed swell is noted off the Guatemala and El Salvador offshores with southerly swell across the rest of the area. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue over the next few days across the Central American and Colombian offshore waters. The Gulf of Papagayo will pulse moderate to locally fresh tonight and Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will continue offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the rest of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is present north of 18N and west of 120W. The associated gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is allowing for moderate to fresh NW to N winds along with seas of 5-8 ft north of 08N and W of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate south to southwest winds are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas to 8 ft in swell generated by Blas are over the waters from 18N to 22N between 114W-117W. Northerly swell is also beginning to move across the northern forecast waters north of about 28N and between 122W- 134W, with seas to 8 ft. By late Wed, this area will shift westward to west of 127W, with seas to 10 ft in NE swell. Swell with seas to 8 ft are also noted across the western waters, from 8N to 26N and W of 130W An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is west-southwest of Celia from 06N to 10N between 104W-109W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters during the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge through Wed night. As the ridge weakens, winds will become light to gentle by Wed and continue through the rest of the week. The northwest swell impacting the northeastern forecast waters will propagate westward over the next few days. The 8 ft seas will remain north of 27N as they shift from 120W to 140W through Thu night. Long- period primarily southwest swell just south of the Equator between 104W-129W this morning will subside Wed afternoon. The northeast swell in the western waters will subside by early Wed afternoon. $$ Aguirre