193 AXPZ20 KNHC 210416 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 11.9N 97.4W at 21/0300 UTC, moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near and west of the center from 08N to 14N between 96W and 102W. Seas are currently 8 ft. The depression is expected to continue moving westward for the next couple days, followed by a turn to the west-northwest. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Celia will likely become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 89W north of 02N to across eastern El Salvador and western Honduras and continues northward to just inland Belize. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 06N to 12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N107W to 08N121W to 07N133W. The ITCZ extends from 07N133W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ and monsoon trough between between 105W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia currently located about 270 nm south- southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The remnant low of Blas is centered near 19N114W, or about 340 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, with a pressure of 1008 mb. It is slowly moving westward. Winds around the low are about 20 to 25 kt with seas to 8 ft. The remnant low is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves in a westward motion over the next couple of days, reaching near 20N115W by early Tue, with winds and seas improving around the low by this time. It is expected to weaken to a trough on Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are noted north of Cabo San Lazaro, with gentle to moderate winds across the rest of Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northeast winds are across the western half of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds reach southwestward to near 14N97W, and are gradually spreading westward to the offshore waters of extreme southeastern Oaxaca, Mexico. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the Mexico offshores. A pulse of northwest swell is propagating through the water offshore extreme northern Baja California offshore waters producing seas to 8 ft in that area. Seas ranging 5-7 ft are noted across the the rest of the Baja California offshores and 4-6 ft across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northwest to north winds north of Cabo San Lazaro will diminish to mainly light to gentle speeds on Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds will return near the Baja California coast by Wed and continue through the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. The fresh to strong NE winds that are over the western half of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will improve by Tue morning. Fresh to strong NW winds will return to the Gulf by Thu morning and continue through Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 300 nm west-southwest of Guatemala. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are noted in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshores in response to Celia. Moderate southerly winds are noted along and east of the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the Central American offshore waters. Seas are 4-6 ft across the offshore waters. Mixed swell is noted off the Guatemala and El Salvador offshores with southerly swell across the rest of the area. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue over the next few days across the Central American offshore waters. The Gulf of Papagayo will pulse moderate to locally fresh Tue night and Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will continue offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is present north of 17N and west of 120W. The associated gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is allowing for moderate to fresh NW to N winds along with seas of 5-8 ft north of 08N and W of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate south to southwest winds are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas to 8 ft in swell generated by Blas are over the waters from 18N to 22N between 114W-117W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present along and west of Celia. See the Special Features section for more information. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters during the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge. As the ridge weakens, winds will become light to gentle by Wed and continue through the rest of the week. The northwest swell impacting the northeastern forecast waters will continue to move westward over the next few days. The 8 ft seas will remain north of 27N as they shift from 120W to 140W through Thu night. Meanwhile, 8 ft seas in long-period southwest swell are expected just south of the Equator between 106W-120W by Tue morning and will subside by Wed night. Mainly northeast swell is also expected west of 135W from 09N to 25N tonight through Wed afternoon. $$ AReinhart