000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202126 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jun 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 12.0N 96.4W at 20/2100 UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Celia is still being impacting by upper-level vertical east-northeasterly hear as noted by its partial exposed low-level center in the latest visible GOES-E satellite imagery. Circularly defined low-level cloud lines are noted in the eastern semicircle of Celia, while the earlier observed pulsing type of scattered moderate to isolated strong intensity over the western semicircle is gradually increasing while remaining steady. This convection is presently within 180 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The depression is moving toward the west, and this motion is is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west-northwest. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Celia is likely become a tropical storm on Tue, with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 88W north of 02N to across eastern El Salvador western Honduras and continues northward to just inland Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 06N to 09N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the wave from 06N to 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 13N106W to 10N115W to 08N120W to 08N130W and to 07N133W. The ITCZ extends from 07N133W to beyond 07N140W. Outside convection associated with Celia, numerous moderate to strong convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 108W-115W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 115W-119W, also within 30 nm of the trough between 120W-124W, and within 30 nm north of the trough between 125W-130W and between 131W-135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia currently located about 270 nm south- southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Blas is centered near 19N114W, or about 330 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, with a pressure of 1005 mb. It is slowly moving westward. The low is depicted as a swirl of broken low and mid- level clouds, with possible isolated showers from 17N to 21N and between 112W-116W.A small burst of scattered moderate convection is moving north well away from the low near 22N114W. A 1749 UTC ASCAT pass revealed winds of 20-30 kt in the western semicircle of the low. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. The remnant low is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves in a westward motion over the next couple of days, reaching near 19N114W early this evening and to near 20N115W by early Tue. It is expected to weaken to a trough on Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are noted north of Cabo San Lazaro, with gentle to moderate winds across the rest of Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northeast winds are across the western half of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds reach southwestward to near 14N97W, and are gradually spreading westward to the offshore waters of extreme southeastern Oaxaca, Mexico. Seas with these winds are 8-9 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the Mexico offshores. A pulse of northwest swell is propagating through the water offshore extreme northern Baja California offshore waters producing seas to 8 ft there. Seas ranging 5-7 ft are noted across the the rest of the Baja California and Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 1-3 ft in the northern Gulf of California with 3-4 ft in the southern part of the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northwest to north winds north of Cabo San Lazaro will diminish to mainly light to gentle speeds on Tue and change little through mid-week. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. The fresh to strong NE winds that are over the western half of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will shift westward through Tue night as Celia passes to the southwest of the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are expected to develop again by Thu morning and continue through Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 200 nm west-southwest of Guatemala. Outside of Celia, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds dominate most of the offshore waters. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in southwest swell. Higher seas of 6-7 ft are offshore Guatemala and El Salvador in the vicinity of Tropical Depression Celia. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts from Celia, gentle to moderate winds will continue today, becoming light and variable north of 06N by Tue as Celia moves away from the region. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will continue offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is present north of 16N and west of 120W. The associated gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is allowing for moderate to fresh NW to N winds along with seas of 5-7 ft north of 09N and W of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate south to southwest winds are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present southeast through southwest of Celia within 60 nm of a line from 08N90W to 07N97W to 08N101W and to 10N104W. Latest ASCAT data noted moderate to fresh southerly winds inflowing into this area of convection, with a pocket of fresh to strong winds from 05N to 08N between 93W-97W. Seas to 8 ft in swell generated by Blas are over the waters from 15N to 22N between 114W-120W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters during the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge. As the ridge weakens, winds will become light to gentle by We,and continue through the rest of the week. The northwest swell impacting the northeastern forecast waters will continue to move westward over the next few days. The 8 ft seas will remain north of 27N as they shift from 120W to 140W through Thu night. Meanwhile, 8 ft seas in long-period southwest swell are expected just south of the Equator between 106W-120W late in the week. Mainly northeast swell is also expected west of 135W from 09N to 25N tonight through Wed afternoon. $$ Aguirre