000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202111 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 20 2022 Corrected Remainder of Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 11.7N 94.8W at 20/1500 UTC moving WSW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Easterly upper-level vertical shear continues to impinge upon Celia as noted by its exposed low-level center in visible satellite imagery this morning. As a result of the shear pulsing deep convection of scattered moderate to isolated strong intensity is displaced to the southwest and northwest of the center of Celia within 60 nm of 11N96W, and within 30 nm of a line from 13N98W to 15N96.5W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are from 13N to 15N between 94W-96W. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest. A slightly faster westward to west- northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. A gradual strengthening trend is forecast to begin by early on Tue. Celia if forecast to intensify into a tropical storm near 12N100W by early Tue evening, with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W north of 02N to across central Honduras and to extreme western Caribbean Sea is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 06N to 08N, and within 60 nm east of the wave from 07N to 09N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends well to the southwest of Blas from 08N120W to 07N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to beyond 06N140W. Outside convection associated with Celia, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of a line from 09N119W to 10N114W to 12N110W. Similar convection is seen from 04N to 08N between 93W-97W, and from 06N to 09N between 93W- 102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 270 nm south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Blas is centered near 19N113W, or about 300 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, with a pressure of 1005 mb. It is moving westward at 4 kt. A 0434 UTC overnight ASCAT pass indicated winds of 20-30 kt within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. A burst of scattered moderate convection is displaced to the north of Blas within about 60 nm of 20N113W. The remnant low is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves in a westward motion over the next couple of days, reaching near 19N114W early this evening and to near 20N115W by early Tue. It is expected to weaken to a trough on Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are noted north of Cabo San Lazaro, with gentle to moderate winds across the rest of Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong NE winds are across the western half of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds reach southwestward to near 14N97W, and are gradually spreading westward to the offshore waters of extreme southeastern Oaxaca, Mexico. Seas with these winds are 8-9 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the Mexico offshores. NW swell is entering the Baja California offshores with seas to 8 ft. Seas ranging 5-7 ft are noted across the the rest of the Baja California and Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 1-3 ft in the northern Gulf of California with 3-4 ft in the southern part of the Gulf. For the forecast, mainly moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds are expected north of Cabo San Lazaro today. Winds will become light to gentle tonight and will continue through mid- week. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. The fresh to strong NE winds that are over the western half of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will shift westward through Tue as Celia passes to the southwest of the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are expected to develop again by Thu morning and continue through Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 200 nm west-southwest of Guatemala. Outside of Celia, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds dominate most of the offshore waters. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in southwest swell. Higher seas of 6-7 ft are offshore Guatemala and El Salvador in the vicinity of Tropical Depression Celia. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts from Celia, gentle to moderate winds will continue today, becoming light and variable north of 06N by Tue as Celia moves away from the region. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will continue offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected High pressure present north of 17N and west of 120W. The associated gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is allowing for moderate to fresh NW to N winds along with seas of 5-7 ft N of 09N and W of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate south to southwest winds are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas to 8 ft in swell generated by Blas are over the waters from 15N to 22N between 112W-120W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters during the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge. As the ridge weakens, winds will become light to gentle by We,and continue through the rest of the week. The northwest swell impacting the northeastern forecast waters will continue to move westward over the next few days. The 8 ft seas will remain north of 27N as they shift from 120W to 140W through Thu night. Meanwhile, 8 ft seas in long-period southwest swell are expected just south of the Equator between 106W-120W late in the week. Mainly northeast swell is also expected west of 135W from 09N to 25N tonight through Wed. $$ Aguirre