000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Blas is centered near 19.1N 113.3W at 20/0900 UTC and moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Overnight scatterometer showed Blas has weakened with 25 kt winds around the center. Isolated convection is noted in the NE quadrant from 19N to 21N between 112W and 114W. Peak seas are 11 ft. The depression will continue to move west until dissipation in a couple of days. Blas should decay into a remnant low pressure area later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 11.9N 94.4W at 20/0900 UTC and moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection from 10N to 14N between 93W and 98W. Persistent convection continues near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, from 14N to 16N between 94W and 98W. Seas are below 8 ft. The depression is expected to generally move westward at a slightly faster forward speed for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the west-northwest. A gradual strengthening trend is forecast to begin by early Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W north of 02N, moving west at 10 kt and crossing northwest Nicaragua and central Honduras into the northwestern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm either side of the wave from 07N to 12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends well to the southwest of Blas from 09N120W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Outside the convection associated with Blas and Celia, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 108W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Blas located several hundred miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Outside Blas, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are noted north of Cabo San Lazaro, with gentle to moderate winds across the rest of Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong NE winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending southward to near 14N. Fresh to locally strong winds associated with Celia are moving into the extreme eastern offshore waters of Oaxaca, Mexico. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the Mexico offshores. Outside of Blas, northerly swell is entering the Baja California offshores with seas to 8 ft. The Gulf of Tehuantepec is also seeing seas to 8 ft, mostly N of 28N. Seas ranging 5-7 ft are noted across the the rest of the Baja California and Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 1-3 ft in the northern Gulf of California with 2-4 ft in the southern Gulf. A persistent area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present west of Celia and over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from 10N to 16N between 93W and 100W. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts from Blas, mainly moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected north of Cabo San Lazaro today. Winds will become light to gentle tonight and will continue through midweek. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through tonight. Fresh to strong winds are expected to develop again by Thu morning and continue through Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 200 nm west-southwest of Guatemala. Outside of Celia, gentle to moderate S-SW winds dominate most of the offshore waters. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in southwest swell. Higher seas of 6-7 ft are offshore Guatemala and El Salvador in the vicinity of Tropical Depression Celia. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts from Celia, gentle to moderate winds will continue today, becoming light and variable north of 06N by Tue as Celia moves away from the region. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will continue offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands from midweek through early weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure present extends north of 17N and west of 120W. The associated gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure along the ITCZ is allowing for moderate to fresh NW to N winds along with seas of 5-7 ft N of 09N and W of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by Blas, dominate roughly the waters from 16N to 22N between 112W- 119W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters during the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge. As the ridge weakens, winds will become light to gentle by Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week. The northwest swell impacting the northeastern forecast waters will continue to move westward over the next few days. The 8 ft seas will stay N of 27N as it moves from 120W to 140W through Thu night. Meanwhile, 8 ft seas in long-period southwest swell are expected to arrive N of 03S between 106W- 120W on Tue and subside by Thu morning. Swell is also expected W of 135W from 09N to 25N tonight through Wed. $$ AReinhart