000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200422 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 19.1N 112.9W at 20/0300 UTC moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Blas continues to have an exposed low-level cloud center noted by circular tightly defined cloud lines as seen on the visible imagery. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 20N to 22N between 107W and 112W. The 12 ft seas extend 60 nm in the NW and NE quadrant, with peak seas at 12 ft. Blas should decay into a tropical depression overnight and a remnant area of low pressure on Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 12.2N 93.9W at 20/0300 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Celia remains under easterly vertical shear. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection from 10N to 14N between 93W and 96W. Just to its west, a large and persistent area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present over and and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from 13N to 16N between 92W and 98W. Seas are below 8 ft. Celia will continue moving west-southwestward over the next day or so followed by a gradual turn to the west- northwestward by Wednesday. Little strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours followed by gradual intensification. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W north of 02N, moving west at 10 kt and crossing the northwest section of Costa Rica and eastern Honduras to the western Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm either side of the wave from 05N to 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends well to the southwest of T.S. Blas from 09N120W to 08N129W. The ITCZ extends from 08N129W to beyond 07N140W. Outside the convection associated with Blas and Celia, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 108W and 126W and from 06N to 10N between 131W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Outside Blas, mainly fresh to locally NW to N winds continue off of Baja California Norte, with moderate to locally fresh winds across Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds are across the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong NW winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending downwind from the Gulf to near 14N. Fresh to strong winds associated with Celia are moving into the most eastern offshore waters of Mexico. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the Mexico offshores. Outside of Blas, northerly swell is entering the northern Baja California offshores with seas to 8 ft. The Gulf of Tehuantepec is also seeing seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, 5-7 ft seas are noted across the the rest of the Baja California and Mexico offshore waters with 2-4 ft seas in the Gulf of California. A large and persistent area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present west of Celia and over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from 10N to 16N between 92W and 99W. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts from Tropical Storm Blas, mainly moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds are expected north of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Fresh to strong NW winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through Tue. These winds will shift N-NE as Celia passes to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region on Mon. The fresh to strong NE winds will separate from the Gulf of Tehuantepec region on Tue as Celia pulls away from the region. Fresh to strong NW winds will return again by Wed and continue through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 200 nm west-southwest of Guatemala. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S-SW winds dominate most of the offshore waters. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in southwest swell. Higher seas of 6-7 ft are offshore Guatemala and El Salvador in the vicinity of Tropical Depression Celia. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Celia gentle to moderate winds will continue through Mon, becoming light and variable north of 09N by Tue as Celia moves away from the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure present extends north of 17N and west of 120. The associated gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure along the ITCZ is allowing for moderate to fresh NW to N winds along with seas of 5-7 ft N of 09N and W of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by Blas, dominate roughly the waters from 15N to 22N between 112W- 119W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters during the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge. As the ridge shifts northward, winds will become light to gentle by Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week. The northwest swell impacting the northeastern forecast waters will continue to move westward over the next few days. The 8 ft seas will stay N of 27N as it moves from 120W to 140W through Thu night. Meanwhile, 8 ft seas in long-period southwest swell are expected to arrive N of 03S between 106W- 120W on Tue and subside by Thu morning. $$ AReinhart