000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200358 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 19.1N 112.9W at 20/0300 UTC moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Blas continues to have an exposed low-level cloud center noted by circular tightly defined cloud lines as seen on the visible imagery. Limited convection of scattered moderate intensity is removed to the northeast of the low-level center from 20N to 22N between 107W and 112W. The 12 ft seas extend 60 nm in the NW and NE quadrant, with peak seas at 12 ft. Blas should decay into a tropical depression overnight and a remnant area of low pressure on Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 12.2N 93.9W at 20/0300 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Celia remains under easterly vertical shear. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection from 10N to 14N between 93W and 96W. Just to its west, a large and persistent area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present over and and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from 13N to 16N between 92W and 98W. Seas are below 8 ft. Celia will continue moving west-southwestward over the next day or so followed by a gradual turn to the west- northwestward by Wednesday. Little strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours followed by gradual intensification. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W north of 02N, moving west at 10 kt and crossing the northwest section of Costa Rica and eastern Honduras to the western Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm either side of the wave from 05N to 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends well to the southwest of T.S. Blas from 09N120W to 08N129W. The ITCZ extends from 08N129W to beyond 07N140W. Outside the convection associated with Blas and Celia, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 108W and 126W and from 06N to 10N between 131W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Outside Blas, mainly fresh to locally NW to N winds continue off of Baja California Norte, with moderate to locally fresh winds across the rest of the Baja California offshores. Light to gentle winds are across the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong NW winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending downwind from the Gulf to near 14N. Fresh to strong winds associated with Celia are moving into the most eastern offshore waters of Mexico. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the Mexico offshores. A large and persistent area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present west of Celia and over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from 10N to 16N between 92W and 99W. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts from Tropical Storm Blas, mainly moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds are expected north of Cabo San Lazaro through at least Mon. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Fresh to strong NW winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through late tonight as a large cyclonic circulation dominates southeastern Mexico, the Bay of Campeche and northern central America. These winds then become north to northeast in direction as Celia passes to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region on Mon. The fresh to strong northeast winds will separate from the Gulf of Tehuantepec region by late Tue as Celia pulls off to the west and away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 175 nm west-southwest of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds dominate most of the offshore waters. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in southwest swell. Higher seas of 6-8 ft are offshore Guatemala and El Salvador in the vicinity of Tropical Depression Celia. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Celia gentle to moderate winds will continue through Mon, becoming light and variable north of 09N by Tue as Celia moves away from the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure present north of 17N and west of 120W is the main synoptic feature controlling the wind regime throughout this area. The associated gradient is allowing for moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds along with seas of 5-7 ft over these waters seen in recent ASCAT data passes and in recent altimeter data passes. These winds will gradually shift westward through Mon night as the ridge retreat in response to Blas tracking in a general westward motion over the open waters SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by Blas, dominate roughly the waters from 15N to 22N between 108W-116W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters during the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge. Additional pulses of northwest swell will continue to affect the northeast waters beginning today. Seas of 8-9 ft will propagate farther south reaching to mainly north of 27N between 120W-132W by early Tue morning. At the same time, 8 ft seas, in long-period southwest swell are expected to arrive just south of the equator between 106W-120W. $$ AReinhart