000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192128 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jun 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 19.1N 112.4W at 19/2100 UTC moving NW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Blas continues to be under vertical upper southerly shear, with its exposed low-level cloud center noted by circular tightly defined cloud lines as seen on the visible imagery. Limited convection of scattered moderate intensity is removed to the northeast of the low-level center from 19N to 21N between 108W-113W. Blas is forecast to have a slow west-northwest motion during the next couple of days. Continued slow weakening is anticipated, and Blas is forecast to become a remnant low on Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 12.7N 93.5W at 19/2100 UTC moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Celia remains under easterly vertical shear. Satellite imagery shows a small circulation center, with small clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over and within 60 nm northwest of the center. Just to its west, a large and persistent area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present over and and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from 11N to 16N between 94W-96W. Celia continues moving westward, however a west-southwestward motion is expected over the next day or so followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwestward by Wed. Gradual strengthening is now forecast, and Celia could become a tropical storm again on Tue. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W north of 04N crossing the northwest section of Costa Rica and eastern Honduras to the western Caribbean near 22N85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 07N to 08N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends well to the southwest of Blas from 11N121W to 09N134W. The ITCZ extends from 09N134W to beyond 08N140W. Outside of convection associated with Blas and Celia, scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 128W-130W and between 131W-133W. Similar convection is within 30 nm of a line from 14N108W to 11N113W and to 10N118W, and within 60 nm of 09N95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Outside Blas, mainly fresh NW to N winds continue north of Cabo San Lazaro under the influence of a ridge. Latest ASCAT data passes show gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Gulf of California, and light and variable winds between Los Cabos and Las Marias Islands, including the entrance to the Gulf of California where seas continues to subside, and fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending downwind from the Gulf to near 15N. A large and persistent area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present west of Celia and over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from 11N to 16N between 94W-96W. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts from Tropical Storm Blas that is affecting the Revillagigedo Islands, mainly moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds are expected north of Cabo San Lazaro through at least Mon. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Fresh to strong NW winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through late tonight as a large cyclonic circulation dominates southeastern Mexico, the Bay of Campeche and northern central America. These winds then become north to northeast in direction as Celia passes to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region on Mon. The fresh to strong northeast winds will separate from the Gulf of Tehuantepec region by late Tue as Celia pulls off to the west and away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 175 nm west-southwest of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds dominate most of the offshore waters. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in southwest swell. Higher seas of 6-8 ft are offshore Guatemala and El Salvador in the vicinity of Tropical Depression Celia. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Celia gentle to moderate winds will continue through Mon, becoming light and variable north of 09N by Tue as Celia moves away from the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure present north of 17N and west of 120W is the main synoptic feature controlling the wind regime throughout this area. The associated gradient is allowing for moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds along with seas of 5-7 ft over these waters seen in recent ASCAT data passes and in recent altimeter data passes. These winds will gradually shift westward through Mon night as the ridge retreat in response to Blas tracking in a general westward motion over the open waters SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by Blas, dominate roughly the waters from 15N to 22N between 108W-116W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters during the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge. Additional pulses of northwest swell will continue to affect the northeast waters beginning today. Seas of 8-9 ft will propagate farther south reaching to mainly north of 27N between 120W-132W by early Tue morning. At the same time, 8 ft seas, in long-period southwest swell are expected to arrive just south of the equator between 106W-120W. $$ Aguirre