000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jun 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 19.0N 113.0W at 19/1500 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Blas remains a sheared system, with a partially exposed low-level cloud center. Convection of the scattered moderate to isolated strong type is within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Blas is forecast to have a slow westward motion is expected during the next few days. Slow weakening is anticipated, and Blas is forecast to become a remnant low on Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 12.8N 92.4W at 19/1500 UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Celia remains under easterly vertical shear. Satellite imagery shows a small circulation center, with small clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over its center. Just to its west, a large and persistent area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present over and and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from 11N to 16N between 93W-96W. Celia continues moving westward, however a west-southwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so followed by gradual strengthening. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W north of 02N crossing Costa Rica and reaching the western Caribbean near 20N84W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 05N to 08N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends southwest of Blas from 11N121W to 09N135W. The ITCZ extends from 09N135W to beyond 08N140W. Outside of convection associated with Blas and Celia, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 88W-92W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W-131W, and within 30 nm of a line from 14N108W to 11N113W and to 10N119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Outside Blas, moderate to fresh NW to N winds continue north of Cabo San Lazaro under the influence of a ridge. Overnight ASCAT data passes revealed gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Gulf of California. The same ASCAT data passes also showed light and variable winds between Los Cabos and Las Marias Islands, including the entrance to the Gulf of California where seas continues to subside, and fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending downwind from the Gulf to near 15N. A large and persistent area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present west of Celia and over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from 11N to 16N between 93W-96W. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts from Tropical Storm Blas that is affecting the Revillagigedo Islands, mainly moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds are expected north of Cabo San Lazaro through at least Mon. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Fresh to strong NW winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through Sun night as a large cyclonic circulation dominates southeastern Mexico, the Bay of Campeche and northern central America. These winds then become north to northeast in direction as Celia passes to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region likely on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 130 nm southwest of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds dominate most of the offshore waters. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in southwest swell. Higher seas of 6-9 ft are offshore Nicaragua and El Salvador due to Tropical Depression Celia. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Celia gentle to moderate winds will continue through Mon, becoming light and variable north of 09N by Tue as Celia moves away from the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure present north of 17N and west of 120W is the main synoptic feature controlling the wind regime throughout this area. The associated gradient is allowing for moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds along with seas of 5-7 ft over these waters seen in over night ASCAT data passes and in recent multiple altimeter data passes. These winds will gradually shift westward through Mon night as the ridge retreat in response to Blas tracking in a general westward motion over the open waters SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by Blas, dominate roughly the waters from 15N to 22N between 108W-116W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters during the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge. Additional pulses of northwest swell will continue to affect the northeast waters beginning today. Seas of 8-9 ft will propagate farther south reaching to mainly north of 27N between 120W-132W by early Tue morning. At the same time, 8 ft seas, in long-period southwest swell are expected to arrive just south of the equator between 105W-120W. $$ Aguirre