000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jun 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 18.8N 112.3W at 19/0900 UTC moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm E semicircle of Blas. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within about 120 nm E semicircle. On the forecast track, a turn toward the west is expected early this morning. Blas is forecast to continue moving slowly westward through the middle of the week. Slow weakening is anticipated, and Blas is forecast to become a remnant low within the next day or two. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 13.0N 91.2W at 19/0900 UTC moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is W of Celia from 12N to 14N between 91.5W AND 93W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection has developed just S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and covers the waters from 12N to 15.5N between 93W and 95.5W. Celia remains weak while moving westward to the S of Guatemala. A west-southwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 82W N of 03N. The wave crosses western Panama into the SW Caribbean. scattered moderate convection is along the wave axis from 06N to 08N between 80W and 84W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends southwest of Blas from 11N120W to 09N131W. The ITCZ extends from 09N131W to beyond 07N140W. Outside of convection associated with Blas and Celia, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 06N to 90N between 85W and 82W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Outside Blas, moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds prevail N of Cabo San Lazaro under the influence of a ridge. Recent scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Gulf of California. The same ASCAT pass shows light and variable winds between Los Cabos and Las Marias Islands, including the entrance to the Gulf of California where seas continues to subside. Satellite derived wind data also provide observations of fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts from Tropical Storm Blas that is affecting the Revillagigedo Islands, mainly moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected N of Cabo San Lazaro through at least Mon. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Fresh to strong NW winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through Sun night as a large cyclonic circulation dominates southeastern Mexico, the Bay of Campeche and northern central America. These winds then become north to northeast in direction as Celia passes to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region likely on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located a short distance southwest of Guatemala. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds dominate most of the offshore waters. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in SW swell. Higher seas of 7-8 ft are offshore Nicaragua and El Salvador due to Tropical Depression Celia. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Celia gentle to moderate winds will continue through Mon, becoming light and variable N of 09N by Tue as Celia moves away from the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds, with seas of 5-7 ft are noted per scatterometer and altimeter data under the influence of the ridge. These winds will gradually shift westward through Mon night as the ridge retreat in response to Blas tracking west-northwestward over the open waters SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by Blas, dominate roughly the waters from 15N to 22N between 108W and 116W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters during the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge. Additional pulses of NW swell will continue to affect the NE waters beginning today. Seas of 8-9 ft will propagate farther S and mainly N of 27N between 120W and 132W by early Tue morning. At the same time, 8 ft seas, in long period SW swell, are expected just S of the equator between 105W and 120W. $$ GR