000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190327 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jun 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 18.7N 111.8W at 19/0300 UTC moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm NE and 90 nm SE quadrants of Blas. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within about 120 nm E semicircle. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest, and this general motion with a turn to the west is anticipated during the next couple of days. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Blas is expected to become a remnant area of low pressure on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 13.0N 90.5W at 19/0300 UTC moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Currently, no deep convection is near the center of Celia. The depression is moving toward the west and this motion is expected to gradually increase in forward speed and turn further to the west-southwest. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends southwest of Blas from 11N120W to 09N131W. The ITCZ extends from 09N131W to beyond 07N140W. Outside of convection associated with Blas and Celia, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 07N to 12N between 84W and 87W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Outside Blas, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds continue over the offshore waters of Baja California, except north of Punta Eugenia where moderate to locally fresh winds are present due to a tighter pressure gradient there between high pressure northwest of the area and broad low pressure over the southwestern U.S. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Seas are subsiding between Los Cabos and Las Marias islands, including the entrance to the Gulf of California as Blas continues to weaken and move away from the area. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts from Tropical Storm Blas that is near the Revillagigedo Islands, mainly moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected N of Cabo San Lazaro through the rest of the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also expected in the Gulf of California tonight, with seas of 5-7 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through Sun night as a large cyclonic circulation dominates southeastern Mexico, the Bay of Campeche and northern central America. These winds then become north to northeast in direction as Celia passes to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region likely on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located a short distance southwest of El Salvador. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds dominate most of the offshore waters. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in SW swell. Higher seas of 7-9 ft are offshore Nicaragua and El Salvador due to Tropical Depression Celia. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Celia gentle to moderate winds will continue through the remainder of the weekend, with seas subsiding some by Sun, but except across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh Fresh NW to N winds, with seas of 5-7 ft are over the northeast part of the area. These winds will gradually shift westward through Mon as the ridge retreat in response to Blas tracking west-northwestward over the open waters SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate N to NE winds north of about 12N and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range. Seas of 8 ft or greater dominate the waters from 12N to 22N between 107W and 115W. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters through the next several days. By late Sun into Mon, additional pulses of NW swell with seas of 8-9 ft are forecast to reach the NE waters. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator beginning on Tue. $$ GR