000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182050 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jun 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 18.4N 111.5W 998 mb at 2 PM PDT moving NW at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Blas will gradually weaken as its moves to near 18.7N 112.3W late tonight, to near 18.8N 113.2W Sun afternoon, to near 18.7N 114.0W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts to 55 kt, then weaken to a remnant low near 18.7N 115.0W Mon afternoon, reach near 18.9N 116.1W late Mon night and to near 18.9N 117.2W Tue afternoon. Blas will dissipate on Wed afternoon. Satellite imagery shows that Blas is weakening under the influence of northeasterly vertical shear. Low-level exposed circular tightly-defined cloud lines are evident over the northern semicircle of Blas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the center in the S semicircle. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Further weakening is forecast, and Blas should degenerate into a remnant low early next week. Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 30.0N 90.1W 1007 mb at 2 PM PDT moving N at 0 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Celia will maintain intensity as it moves to near 12.8N 91.0W late tonight, to near 12.5N 92.5W Sun afternoon, to near 12.1N 94.2W late Sun night, then slowly begin to strengthen as it moves to near 11.9N 96.2W Mon afternoon, strengthening to a tropical storm near 12.0N 98.2W late Mon night with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Celia is forecast to reach near 12.5N 100.2W Tue afternoon, and reach to near 13.7N 104.0W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that Celia is being severely inflicted by easterly vertical wind shear as its small center remains exposed. Broken to overcast broken low and mid-level clouds along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 45 nm of the center, except within 60 nm in the SE quadrant. A cluster of scattered moderate to isolated convection is being steered westward by the easterly shear between 60 to 120 nm west-northwest of the center of Celia. The depression is currently stationary. A motion to the west is forecast to begin tonight with a gradual increase in forward speed by early next week. Little change in strength is forecast during for the next several days. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Tropical Depression Celia across portions of far southern Mexico and Guatemala through Sun. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and extreme southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system, though the changes of direct wind impacts are diminishing. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends southwest of Blas from 10N124W to 09N131W. The ITCZ extends from 09N131W to 07N140W. Outside of convection associated with Blas and Celia, numerous moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 93W-96W. Scattered moderate convection is present to southeast and south of Blas from 10N to 16N between 102W-112W and also within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 134W-136W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ west of 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Outside Blas, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds continue over the offshore waters of Baja California, except north of Punta Eugenia where moderate to locally fresh winds are present due to a tighter pressure gradient there between high pressure northwest of the area and broad low pressure over the southwestern U.S. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Seas continue to build between Los Cabos and Las Marias islands, including the entrance to the Gulf of California due to swells generated by Blas. Seas 8 ft or greater are reaching the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts from Tropical Storm Blas that is passing to within about 40 nm to the southwest of Socorro Island, mainly moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected N of Cabo San Lazaro through the rest of the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also expected in the Gulf of California today and tonight, with seas of 6-8 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through Sun night as a large cyclonic circulation dominates southeastern Mexico, the Bay of Campeche and northern central America. These winds then become north to northeast in direction as Celia passes to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 40 nm south-southwest of the northern coast of El Salvador. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 09N with mainly moderate to locally gentle winds north of 09N, with the exception of moderate to occasionally fresh west to northwest winds north of 09N. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in SW swell. Higher seas of 7-10 ft are offshore Nicaragua and El Salvador due to Tropical Depression Celia. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Celia gentle to moderate winds will continue through the weekend, with seas subsiding some by Sun, but except across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh Fresh NW to N winds, with seas of 5-7 ft are over the northeast part of the area. These winds will gradually shift westward through Mon as the ridge retreat in response to Blas tracking west-northwestward over the open waters SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate N to NE winds north of about 12N and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range. Seas of 8 ft or greater dominate the waters from 12N to 24N between 103W-129W into early Mon. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters through the weekend. By late Sun into Mon, additional pulses of NW swell with seas of 8-9 ft are forecast to reach the NE waters. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator beginning on Tue. $$ Aguirre