616 AXPZ20 KNHC 181559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jun 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 18.0N 111.0W 995 mb at 8 AM PDT moving WNW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Blas will weaken slightly as it moves to near 18.3N 111.7W this evening, to near 18.5N 112.6W Sun morning, to near 18.6N 113.4W Sun evening, to near 18.7N 114.4W Mon morning, then weaken to a remnant low near 18.9N 115.5W Mon evening and reach near 19.2N 116.7W Tue morning. Blas will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.6N 118.8W early on Wed. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Further weakening is forecast, and Blas should degenerate into a remnant low early next week. Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 12.8N 90.0W 1006 mb at 8 AM PDT moving WNW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Celia will maintain intensity as it moves to near 12.8N 90.7W this evening, to near 12.5N 91.9W Sun morning, to near 12.1N 93.5W Sun evening, to near 12.0N 95.1W Mon morning, then strengthen to a tropical storm near 12.2N 97.1W Mon evening with maximums sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Celia is forecast to move to near 12.5N 99.2W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, and change little in intensity as it moves to near 13.5N 103.5W early on Wed. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest. A further turn toward the west is expected by tonight, with a gradual increase in forward speed by early next week. Little change in strength is forecast during for the next several days. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Tropical Depression Celia across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and extreme southeastern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends southwest of Blas from 11N119W to 09N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to 07N140W. Outside of convection associated with Blas and Celia, numerous moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 93W-95W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 16N between 101W- 110W and also within 30 nm of the ITCZ west of 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Outside Blas, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds continue over the offshore waters of Baja California, except north of Punta Eugenia where moderate to locally fresh winds are present due to a tighter pressure gradient there between high pressure northwest of the area and broad low pressure over the southwestern U.S. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Seas continue to build between Los Cabos and Las Marias islands, including the entrance to the Gulf of California due to swells generated by Blas. Seas 8 ft or greater are reaching the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of T.S. Blas that is close to the Revillagigedo Islands, mainly moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected N of Cabo San Lazaro through the rest of the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also expected in the Gulf of California today and tonight, with seas of 6-8 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through Sun night as a large cyclonic circulation dominates southeastern Mexico, the Bay of Campeche and northern central America. These winds then become north to northeast in direction as Celia passes to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 85 nm south-southwest of the coast of El Salvador. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 09N with light to locally gentle winds north of 09N. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in SW swell. Higher seas of 7-10 ft are offshore Nicaragua and El Salvador due to Tropical Depression Celia. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Celia gentle to moderate winds will continue through the upcoming weekend with seas subsiding some by Sun, except across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. Fresh NW to N winds, with seas of 6-8 ft in NW swell are affecting the far northeast part of the area. These seas will subside to 5-7 ft today with mainly moderate northerly winds prevailing. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate N to NE winds north of about 12N and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range. Seas of 8 ft or greater dominate the waters from 12N to 24N between 103W-115W due to swell from Blas. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters through the weekend. By late Sun into Mon, additional pulses of NW swell with seas of 8-9 ft are forecast to reach the NE waters. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator starting Tue. $$ Aguirre