000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jun 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 17.8N 110.8W at 18/0900 UTC moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently 24 ft. A recent altimeter pass indicates seas of 12 ft extending about 210 nm on the E semicircle of Blas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm SW quadrant. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Further weakening is forecast, and Blas should degenerate into a remnant low early next week. Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 12.6N 89.6W at 18/0900 UTC moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt with seas to 10 ft. Easterly shear has increased over Celia with most of the deep convection displaced to the W of the center, and mainly from 10N to 15N between 92W and 94W. The depression is moving toward the northwest. A turn toward the west is expected by tonight, with a westward motion continuing through Sunday night. Little change in strength is forecast during for the next several days. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Tropical Depression Three-E across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and extreme southeastern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends southwest of Blas from 11N120W to 09N130W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N130W to beyond 07N140W. Outside of the convection associated with Blas and Celia, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 08N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia, N of 06N between 79W and 83W, from 10N to 15N between 100W and 106W in a SW wind flow, and from 05N to 08N W of 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Outside Blas, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds continue over the offshore waters of Baja California, except north of Punta Eugenia where moderate to locally fresh winds are present due to a tighter pressure gradient there between high pressure northwest of the area and broad low pressure over the southwestern U.S. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Seas continue to build between Los Cabos and Las Marias islands, including the entrance to the Gulf of California due to swells generated by Blas. A recent altimeter pass indicate seas to 12 ft between Las Marias and Cabo Corrientes, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of T.S. Blas that is close to the Revillagigedo Islands, mainly moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected N of Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also expected in the Gulf of California today and tonight, with seas of 6-8 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through Sun night as a large cyclonic circulation dominates southeastern Mexico, the Bay of Campeche and northern central America. These winds then become north to northeast in direction as Celia passes to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located about 85 nm south-southwest of the coast of El Salvador. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 09N with light to locally gentle winds north of 09N. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in SW swell. Higher seas of 7-9 ft are offshore Nicaragua and El Salvador due to T.D. Celia. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Celia gentle to moderate winds will continue through the upcoming weekend with seas subsiding some by Sun, except across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. Fresh NW to N winds, with seas of 6-8 ft in NW swell are affecting the far northeast part of the area. These seas will subside to 5-7 ft today with mainly moderate northerly winds prevailing. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate N to NE winds north of about 12N and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range. Seas of 8 ft or greater dominate the waters from 12N to 24N between 103W-115W due to swell from Blas. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters through the weekend. By late Sun into Mon, additional pulses of NW swell with seas of 8-9 ft are forecast to reach the NE waters. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator starting Tue. $$ GR