000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180335 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jun 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Blas has weakened to a tropical storm, but dangerous surf conditions continue along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 17.6N 110.2W at 18/0300 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently 25 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm SW quadrant. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Celia has weakened to a tropical depression. Celia is centered near 12.0N 89.1W at 18/0300 UTC moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.is centered near 11.8N 89.4W 1004 mb at 2 PM PDT moving N at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt with seas to 10 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm W semicircle. A slow motion toward the north is expected through tonight, followed by a turn to the west over the weekend. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Tropical Depression Celia across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends southwest of Blas from 12N120W to 09N130W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N130W to beyond 07N140W. Outside of the convection associated with Blas and Celia, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 07N between the coast of Colombia and 87W, from 10N to 15N between 102W and 110W in a SW flow, and from 05N to 08N W of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas located S of the southern tip of Baja California. Outside Blas, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds continue over the offshore waters of Baja California, except north of Punta Eugenia where moderate to locally fresh winds are present due to a tighter pressure gradient there between high pressure northwest of the area and broad low pressure over the southwestern U.S. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Seas are on increase between Los Cabos and Las Marias islands, including the entrance to the Gulf of California due to swells generated by Blas. Seas of 6-8 ft are N of Punta Eugenia. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of T.S. Blas that is approaching the Revillagigedo Islands, mainly moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds are expected N of Cabo San Lazaro through the upcoming weekend. Southeast winds will briefly increase to 20-25 kt in the northern Gulf of California tonight into Sat while moderate to locally fresh south winds will prevail elsewhere across the Gulf through Sat. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region tonight through Sun night as a large cyclonic circulation dominates southeastern Mexico, the Bay of Campeche and northern central America. These winds then become north to northeast in direction as Celia passes to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia located southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except locally fresh offshore Ecuador, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Celia gentle to moderate winds will continue through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. Fresh northwest to north winds, with seas of 6-8 ft in a northwest to north swell are over the far northeast part of the area. These seas will subside to 5-7 ft tonight, but the winds will continue. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate north to northeast winds north of about 12N and west of 121W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range. Seas of 8 ft or greater dominate the waters from 10N to 23N between 102W-114W due to swell from Blas. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters through the weekend. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator starting Tue. $$ GR