000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 17.4N 109.9W 980 mb at 2 PM PDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Blas will gradually weaken as it moves to near 17.8N 111.3W late tonight, weakening to a tropical storm near 18.1N 112.6W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, reach near 18.3N 113.6W late Sat night, near 18.4N 114.6W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 18.3N 115.5W late Sun night, then become post-tropical and move to near 18.2N 116.5W Mon afternoon. Blas will weaken to a remnant low near 18.6N 118.7W Tue afternoon. Peak seas are currently 28 ft. An earlier altimeter data pass showed seas excess of 12 ft well to the northeast of Blas. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 180 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and within 90 nm of the of the center in the NW quadrant and within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is to the east and southeast of Blas from 10N to 17N between 102W-108W. A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Steady weakening is expected, and Blas will likely become a tropical storm on Sat. Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 11.8N 89.4W 1004 mb at 2 PM PDT moving N at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Celia will maintaing intensity as it moves to near 12.1N 89.4W late tonight, to near 12.3N 89.8W Sat afternoon, to near 12.2N 90.7W late Sat night, to near 11.8N 92.1W Sun afternoon, to near 11.5N 93.8W late Sun night, and to near 11.6N 95.8W Mon afternoon. Celia will change little in intensity as it moves to near 12.5N 100.4W Tue afternoon. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 110 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Similar convection is northwest of Celia within 60 nm of line from 13N92W to 14N91W, and within 30 nm of a line from 13N93W to 14N92W, and inland Mexico for about 60 nm miles. A slow motion toward the north is expected through tonight, followed by a turn to the west over the weekend. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Tropical Storm Celia across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends southwest of Blas from 12N120W to 10N130W. The ITCZ axis continues from 10N130W to beyond 07N140W. Outside of the convection associated with Blas and Celia, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N east of 81W to inland Colombia, and from 05N to 09N between 81W-88W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 10N to 15N between 94W-95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 137W-139W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 132W-135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Blas located off the coast of southwest Mexico. Outside Hurricane Blas, mainly gentle to moderate northwest winds continue are over the offshore waters of Baja California, except north of Punta Eugenia where moderate to locally fresh winds are present due to a tighter gradient there between high pressure northwest of the area and broad low pressure over the southwestern U.S. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Light and variable winds are between Los Cabos and Las Marias Islands, including the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of Hurricane Blas that will approach the Revillagigedo Islands today, mainly moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds are expected N of Cabo San Lazaro through the upcoming weekend. Southeast Winds will briefly increase to 20-25 kt in the northern Gulf of California today while moderate to locally fresh south winds will prevail elsewhere across the Gulf through Sat. The 20-25 kt southeast winds in the northern Gulf of California will become moderate to fresh south to southwest winds late tonight. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region tonight through Sun night as a large cyclonic circulation dominates southeastern Mexico, the Bay of Campeche and northern central America. These winds then become north to northeast in direction as Celia passes to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Celia located southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except locally fresh offshore Ecuador, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Tropical Storm Celia gentle to moderate winds will continue through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. Fresh northwest to north winds, with seas of 6-8 ft in a northwest to north swell are over the far northeast part of the area. These seas will subside to 5-7 ft tonight, but the winds will continue. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate north to northeast winds north of about 12N and west of 121W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range. Seas of 8 ft or greater dominate the waters from 08N to 21N between 101W-112W due to swell from Blas. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters through the weekend. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator starting Tue. $$ Aguirre