937 AXPZ20 KNHC 171954 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jun 17 2022 Corrected Special Features section for Blas Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 17.8N 109.0W 976 mb at 8 AM PDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Blas will move to 18.2N 110.7W this evening, to near 18.6N 112.3W early Sat, then weaken to a tropical storm near 18.8N 113.4W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, reach near 18.9N 114.4W Sun morning, to near 18.8N 115.4W Sun evening, and become post-tropical and move to near 18.7N 116.3W Mon morning. Blas will weaken to a remnant low near 18.8N 118.3W early on Tue. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm S and 90 nm N semicircles. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 13N to 16N between 103W- 107W. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest. A gradual decrease in forward speeds and a turn to the west are expected this weekend. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later today and continue during the next several days. Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The swells are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja California later today and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 11.6N 89.3W 1004 mb at 8 AM PDT moving NNE at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Celia will move to 11.8N 89.3W this evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, to near 12.1N 89.5W Sat morning, to near 12.2N 90.0W Sat evening, to near 12.2N 90.8W Sun morning, to near 11.9N 92.4W Sun evening, and to near 11.7N 94.2W Mon morning. A ship observation at 12Z from ship "C6DQ4" near 11N92W indicated seas to around 12 ft. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Celia is drifting toward the toward the north-northeast. A slow motion toward the north is expected through tonight, followed by a turn to the west over the weekend. Some slight strengthening is forecast today followed by little change in strength over the weekend. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Tropical Storm Celia across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends southwest of Blas from 12N118W to 09N130W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N130W to beyond 07N140W. Outside of the convection associated with Blas and Celia, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 08N east of 81W to the coast of Colombia. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 10N to 14N between 92W-95W. A large cluster of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 11N to 15N between 92W- 94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 08N118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Blas located off the coast of southwest Mexico. Outside Hurricane Blas, mainly gentle to moderate northwest winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California, except N of Punta Eugenia where moderate to locally fresh prevail in association with an approaching cold front. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Light and variable winds are between Los Cabos and Las Marias Islands, including the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of Hurricane Blas that will approach the Revillagigedo Islands today, mainly moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds are expected N of Cabo San Lazaro through the upcoming weekend. Southeast Winds will briefly increase to 20-25 kt in the northern Gulf of California today while moderate to locally fresh south winds will prevail elsewhere across the Gulf through Sat. The 20-25 kt southeast winds in the northern Gulf of California will become moderate to fresh south to southwest winds late tonight. Fresh to strong north winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region tonight through Sun as a large cyclonic circulation dominates southeastern Mexico, the Bay of Campeche and northern central America. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Celia located southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except locally fresh offshore Ecuador, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Tropical Storm Celia gentle to moderate winds will continue through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. A weakening stationary front extends from near 30N118W to 27N125W and to 27N135W. Fresh north winds and seas of 8-9 ft follow the front between 120W and 125W. Mainly moderate north to northeast winds are noted under the influence of the ridge with seas generally in the 5-7 ft range. Seas of 8 ft or greater dominate the waters from 08N to 21N between 90W and 111W due to the tropical cyclones. For the forecast, the weakening stationary front will dissipate today. The ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters. The northerly swell producing seas of 6-8 ft over the north NE waters will linger through this evening. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator starting Tue. $$ Aguirre