000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 17.0N 107.5W at 17/0900 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently 28 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm N and 90 nm S semicircles. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 18N between 106W and 110W. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest and this motion is expected to to continue over the next few days with some increase in forward speed today. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later today and continue through the weekend. Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The swells are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja California later today and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Three-E is centered near 11.3N 89.6W at 17/0900 UTC moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm W semicircle. An altimeter pass indicated seas to 9 ft in association with this tropical system. A slow motion toward the north is expected through tonight, followed by a turn to the west over the weekend. The depression is likely to become a tropical storm later today. This tropical cyclone will produce heavy rains over the southwestern portions of Guatemala and southern portions of the Mexican state of Chiapas through Sunday night. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends W of Blas from 13N112W to 09N128W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N128W to beyond 08N140W. Outside of the convection associated with Blas and T.D. Three-E, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N E of 80W to the coast of Colombia. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are N of 11N between 91W and 95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also seen from 09N to 15N between 98W and 105W in a SW flow. Similar convection is within about 120 nm S of the ITCZ and W of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Blas located off the coast of southwest Mexico. Outside Hurricane Blas, mainly gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California, except N of Punta Eugenia where moderate to locally fresh prevail in association with an approaching cold front. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Light and variable winds are between Los Cabos and Las Marias Islands, including the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of Hurricane Blas that will approach the Revillagigedo Islands today, mainly moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected N of Cabo San Lazaro through the upcoming weekend. Winds will briefly increase to 20-25 kt in the northern Gulf of California today while moderate to locally fresh S winds will prevail elsewhere across the Gulf through Sat. Fresh to strong N winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region tonight through Sun as a large cyclonic circulation dominates SE Mexico, the Bay of Campeche and northern central America. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression-Three-E located southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except locally fresh offshore Ecuador, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Tropical Depression Three-E gentle to moderate winds will continue through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and W of 120W. A cold front extends from 30N120W to 27N140W. Fresh N winds and seas of 8-9 ft follow the front between 120W and 125W. Mainly moderate N to NE winds are noted under the influence of the ridge with seas generally in the 5-7 ft range. Seas 8 ft or greater dominates the waters from 08N to 21N between 90W and 110W due to the tropical cyclones. For the forecast, the cold front will move across the N waters today while dissipating. The ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters. The northerly swell over the NE waters will linger through this evening. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator starting Tue. $$ GR