000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170340 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jun 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 16.5N 106.5W at 17/0300 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently 29 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm N and 90 nm S semicircles. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 98W and 104W, and from 13N to 18N between 104W and 109W. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest and this motion is expected to to continue over the next few days with some increase in forward speed. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours or so, but steady weakening is expected to begin Friday and continue through the weekend. Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The swells are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja California by late Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Three-E is centered near 11.1N 90.1W at 17/0300 UTC moving N at 2 kt. A slow motion toward the north is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn to the west over the weekend. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows that this system is acquiring banding features. In addition deep convection is increasing. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm S semicircle. An altimeter pass indicated seas to 9 ft in association with this tropical system. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm by Friday. Tropical Depression Three-E will produce heavy rains over the southwestern portions of Guatemala and southern portions of the Mexican state of Chiapas through Sunday night. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W north of 03N, moving westward at 10 kt. Convection is limited. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends W of Blas from 13N112W to 09N128W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N128W to beyond 08N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 07N E of 78W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is within about 120 nm S of the ITCZ W of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Blas, off the coast of southwest Mexico, and on Tropical Depression-Three-E located southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Outside Hurricane Blas, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail, with gentle SW winds in the Gulf of California, and locally fresh winds offshore Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of Hurricane Blas and the low pressure currently southeast f the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Fri, except for locally fresh offshore Baja California and in the Gulf of California through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh north winds are expected offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri, increasing to fresh to locally strong early Sat through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression-Three-E located southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except locally fresh offshore Ecuador, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast for areas outside those impacted by Tropical Depression Three-E gentle to moderate winds will continue through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and W of 120W. A cold front extends from 31N120W to 29N140W. Fresh N winds and seas of 8-9 ft follow the front between 120W and 125W. These seas are already propagating across the area N of 27N between 120W and 125W. Mainly moderate N to NE winds are noted under the influence of the ridge with seas generally in the 5-7 ft range. Seas 8 ft or greater dominates the waters from 08N to 20N between 90W and 110W due to the tropical cyclones. For the forecast, the cold front will move across the N waters tonight and Fri while dissipating. The ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters. The northerly swell over the NE waters will linger through Fri night while propagating farther S. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator starting Tue. $$ GR