000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162253 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jun 16 2022 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 16.2N 105.6W at 16/2100 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently 29 ft. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 90 nm of thee center in the E semicircle, and within 60 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 11N to 13N between 103W-110W. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days, with some increase in forward speed. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12-24 hours, but steady weakening is expected to begin Fri night and continue through the weekend. Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The swells are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja California by late Fri and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Newly formed Tropical Depression Three-E is centered near 10.8N 89.9W at 16/2100 UTC moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows that this system is acquiring banding features. In addition deep convection is increasing. This convection is in the form of scattered moderate to isolated strong type intensity from 08N to 13N between 89W- 92W, and from 08N to 13N between 94W-95W. Ship with caller ID "VROD3" reported east winds of 25 kt near 11N90W and seas to 8 ft at 17Z.The depression is forecast to maintain a slow motion toward the north over the next day or so, followed by a turn to the west over the weekend. Tropical Depression Three-E could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next several days. Please read the read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W north of 03N, moving westward at 10 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the wave north of 05N. A tropical wave is along 100W north of 04N to the southern part of Guerrero. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. This tropical wave is expected to become ill-defined as it moves closer to Hurricane Blas. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 17N between 97W-103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends from northwestern Colombia to southern Costa Rica to Tropical Depression Three-E and to 12N95W. It resumes southwest of Blas at 13N110W to 09N120W to 08N126W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N126W to 07N133W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 134W-137W, and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 131W-133W and between 134W-137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Blas, off the coast of southwest Mexico, and on recently developed Tropical Depression-Three-E southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Outside Hurricane Blas, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail, with gentle SW winds in the Gulf of California, and locally fresh winds offshore Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of Hurricane Blas and the low pressure currently southeast f the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Fri, except for locally fresh offshore Baja California and in the Gulf of California through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh north winds are expected offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri, increasing to fresh to locally strong early Sat through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a area of low pressure that is located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the southwest coast of Mexico. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except locally fresh offshore Ecuador, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast areas outside those impacted by Tropical Depression Three-E gentle to moderate winds will continue through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad and expansive ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate N-NE winds are north of 18N, locally fresh along 30N between 120W and 130W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Mainly moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except fresh to strong from 09N to 13N between 98W and 107W to the west of Hurricane Blas, which is located in the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 6-9 ft in northerly swell north of 22N and east of 130W. Seas are 6- ft in southerly swell south of 10N and east of 130W, and mainly 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell elsewhere. For the forecast, a weakening front will move south of 30N today. Ridging will build over the waters this weekend into early next week and the pressure gradient between the ridging and encroaching Hurricane Blas will increase trades to moderate to fresh north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Meanwhile, northerly swell over the north-central waters will linger through Fri night. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator starting Tue. $$ Aguirre