000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161608 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 16 2022 Corrected satellite imagery time Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 15.9N 104.8W at 16/1500 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently 27 ft. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm in the S semicircle . Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of a line from 13N105W to 13N109W, and within 180 nm NW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection from 11N to 14N between 110W-114W. Blas is moving toward the west- northwest and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days, with some increase in forward speed. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, but steady weakening is expected to begin Fri night and continue through the weekend. Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The swells are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja California by late Fri and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Off the coast of Central America: An area of low pressure ocated a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Low pressure within this area of disturbed weather is located near 11N90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 08N to 14N between 132W-139W. Current associated winds are 20 to 25 kt with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a bit more favorable over the next day or two and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next couple of days. This system is forecast to drift erratically through the weekend but begin a more pronounced westward motion by early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next several days. Please read the latest NHC Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 83W north of 03N, moving westward at 10 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of the wave from 05N to 08N. A tropical wave is along 99W north of 04N to the southern part of Guerrero. It is moving westard at 5-10 kt. This tropical wave is expected to become ill- defined as it moves closer to Hurricane Blas. Associated nearby convection is described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends from northwestern Colombia to northern Panama/southern Costa Rica to 11N86W to low pressure near 11N90W 1006 mb and to 12N95W. It resumes southwest of Blas at 13N110W to 09N120W to 08N126W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N126W to 07N134W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ betweewn 126W-130W, and wihtin 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 132W-139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Blas, off the coast of southwest Mexico, and on broad low pressure that has the potential for tropical formation southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Outside Hurricane Blas, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail, with gentle SW winds in the Gulf of California, and locally fresh winds offshore Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires is causing some restriction in visible for waters north of Jalisco. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of Hurricane Blas and the low pressure currently southeast f the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the remainder of the week, locally fresh offshore Baja California Norte and in the Gulf of California Thu night through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh winds may develop Offshore Tehuantepec Thu morning, increasing to fresh to locally strong early Sat through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a area of low pressure that is located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the southwest coast of Mexico. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except locally fresh offshore Ecuador, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5 to 7 ft. Sangay Volcano at position 02.01S 78.3W in Ecuador is currently in a state of unrest and is producing a plume of volcanic ash which may be reaching the surface offshore Ecuador to 83W, including the Gulf of Guayaquil. Mariners traveling in the vicinity of Sangay are urged to exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424. For the forecast outside areas impacted by the low pressure currently offshore El Salvador, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend, locally fresh offshore Ecuador today. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad and expansive ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate N-NE winds are north of 18N, locally fresh along 30N between 120W and 130W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Mainly moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except fresh to strong from 09N to 13N between 98W and 107W to the west of Hurricane Blas, which is located in the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in northerly swell north of 22N and east of 130W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in southerly swell south of 10N and east of 130W, and mainly 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell elsewhere. For the forecast, a weakening front will move south of 30N today. Ridging will build over the waters this weekend into early next week and the pressure gradient between the ridging and encroaching Hurricane Blas will increase trades to moderate to fresh north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Meanwhile, northerly swell over the north-central waters will linger through Fri night. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator Tue. $$ Aguirre