912 AXPZ20 KNHC 160301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 15.4N 103.7W at 16/0300 UTC moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently 21 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 19N between 98W and 110W. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest and this motion is expected to continue over the next several days with gradual acceleration. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours followed by gradual weakening starting Fri. Swells generated by Blas are affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico and are likely to continue over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Off the coast of Central America: An area of disturbed weather located a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is associated with a broad area of low pressure centered near 11.5N91.5W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 87W and 96W. Current associated winds are 20 to 25 kt with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Although shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this disturbance remains disorganized at this time, a tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple days while the system drifts erratically. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development over the weekend. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next several days. Please read the latest NHC Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave stretches from Panama S to 2N, along 81W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the coast of Panama. A tropical wave is along 97W from Oaxaca to 04N, moving W at 5 kt. This tropical wave is expected to become ill-defined as it moves closer to Hurricane Blas. Associated nearby convection is described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 12N86.5W to 1007 mb broad low pressure near 11.5N91.5W to 14N97W, then resumes southwest of Blas near 13.5N107W to 07N123W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N123W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 110W and 118W, from 06N to 08N between 118W and 124W, from 06N to 08N between 129W and 132W, and from 08N to 10N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Blas, off the coast of southwest Mexico, and on broad low pressure that has the potential for tropical formation southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Away from Hurricane Blas, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail, with gentle SW winds in the Gulf of California, and locally fresh winds offshore Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires is causing some restriction in visible for waters north of Jalisco. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of Hurricane Blas, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the remainder of the week, locally fresh offshore Baja California Norte and in the Gulf of California Thu night through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh winds may develop Offshore Tehuantepec Thu morning, increasing to fresh to locally strong early Sat through OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on broad low pressure offshore El Salvador. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except locally fresh offshore Ecuador, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia and are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Sangay Volcano at position 02.01S 78.3W in Ecuador is currently in a state of unrest and is producing a plume of volcanic ash which may be reaching the surface offshore Ecuador to 83W, including the Gulf of Guayaquil. Mariners traveling in the vicinity of Sangay are urged to exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend, locally fresh offshore Ecuador through tonight. Winds will diminish somewhat early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad and expansive ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate N-NE winds are north of 18N, locally fresh along 30N between 120W and 130W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Mainly moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except fresh to strong from 09N to 13N between 98W and 107W to the west of Hurricane Blas, which is located in the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in northerly swell north of 22N and east of 130W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in southerly swell south of 10N and east of 130W, and mainly 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell elsewhere. For the forecast, a dissipating cold front will move south of 30N Thu evening. Ridging will build over the waters this weekend into early next week and the pressure gradient between the ridging and encroaching Blas will increase trades to moderate to fresh north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Meanwhile, northerly swell over the north-central waters will linger through the end of the week. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator Tue. $$ KONARIK