000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Blas is centered near 15.1N 103.1W at 15/2100 UTC moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently 20 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 19N between 96W and 110W. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest and this motion is expected to continue over the next several days with gradual acceleration. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours followed by gradual weakening through the end of the week. Swells generated by Blas are affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico and are likely to continue over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Off the coast of Central America: A large area of showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador are associated with a trough of low pressure, near 11.5N91.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 87W and 96W. Current associated winds are 20 to 25 kt with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Gradual development of this system is possible while it drifts erratically, and it could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days, with a medium potential for tropical cyclone formation. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by this weekend. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next several days. Please read the latest NHC Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along the Pacific coast of Colombia along 77.5W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible inland over Colombia and Panama near the tropical wave axis. A tropical wave is along 96W from near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec southward to northwest of the Galapagos Islands, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. This tropical wave is expected to become ill-defined as it moves closer to Blas. Associated nearby convection is described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 12N86.5W to 1007 mb broad low pressure near 11.5N91.5W to 14N97W, then resumes southwest of Blas near 13.5N107W to 07N120W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N120W to 08N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 110W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 80W and 84W, from 06N to 08N between 118W and 124W, from 06N to 08N between 129W and 132W, and from 08N to 10N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Blas, off the coast of southwest Mexico, and on broad low pressure that has the potential for tropical formation southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Away from Hurricane Blas, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail, with gentle southerly winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell off Baja California Norte, 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires is causing some restriction in visible for waters north of Jalisco, while early afternoon satellite imagery shows thinning and dissipating stratus along and offshore of the western coast of Baja California. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of Blas, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the remainder of the week, locally fresh offshore Baja California Norte and in the Gulf of California Thu night through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh winds may develop Offshore Tehuantepec Thu morning, increasing to fresh to locally strong early Sat through Sun. NW swell will linger offshore Baja California through Fri night, with another set arriving Sun night into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on broad low pressure offshore El Salvador. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except locally fresh offshore Ecuador, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia, locally 8 ft from the Equator to 03N, and are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, outside of the possibly developing broad low pressure, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend, locally fresh offshore Ecuador through tonight. Winds will diminish somewhat early next week. Cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region, with 5 to 7 ft seas spreading northward through the remainder of the week, locally 8 ft through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Blas, off the coast of southwest Mexico. Elsewhere, broad and expansive ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate N-NE winds are north of 18N, locally fresh along 30N between 120W and 130W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except fresh to strong from 09N to 13N between 98W and 107W near Blas. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in northerly swell north of 22N and east of 135W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in southerly swell south of 10N and east of 130W, and mainly 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell elsewhere. For the forecast, a dissipating cold front will move south of 30N Thu evening and night. Ridging will build over the waters this weekend into early next week and the pressure gradient between the ridging and encroaching Blas will increase trades to moderate to fresh north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Meanwhile, northerly swell over the north-central waters will linger through the end of the week, then build back a bit by the end of the weekend into early next week. A set of southerly swell may build seas south of the Equator by early next week. $$ Lewitsky