055 AXPZ20 KNHC 150904 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 15.2N 102.6W at 15/0900 UTC moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 100W and 106W. Tropical Storm Blas is forecast to turn more NW and accelerate in the next 12 to 24 hours, then veer WNW into the weekend. Blas is expected to continue strengthening and become a hurricane later today. Later in the week, conditions will become unfavorable for strengthening, and Blas is forecast to weaken by this weekend. Swells from Tropical Storm Blas have reached the Mexican coast, and these swells will lead to life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Off the coast of Central America: Showers off the coast of El Salvador continue to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends across a broad area from 09N to 16N between 88W and 96W. Current winds are 20 to 25 kt with seas to around 8 ft. Further development of this system is possible while it drifts erratically, and it could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days. There is a medium chance of tropical development of this system within the next 48 hours. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico during the next several days. Winds and seas will also increase across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 93W from 03N to the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving W around 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave is described in the Special Features section above. A tropical wave previously along 95W has become absorbed by the primary tropical wave above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends from 10N75W, across Nicaragua, to near 13N91W. It then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Blas at 10N110W and continues to 07N122W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N122W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 78W and 82W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas, off the coast of southwest Mexico, and for low pressure that has the potential for tropical develop S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Away from Tropical Storm Blas, mainly moderate winds prevail, with gentle winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell off Baja California Norte, 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, locally to 4 ft in the northern Gulf north of 30N. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires is causing some restriction in visible for waters N of Jalisco. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of Blas, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the week, locally fresh offshore Baja California Norte Fri through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh winds may develop Offshore Tehuantepec Fri, increasing to fresh to locally strong late Sat night through Sun morning. NW swell will linger offshore Baja California through Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure offshore El Salvador. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are building offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands with 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell, are 3 to 5 ft offshore Colombia to Costa Rica, and 4 to 6 ft north of there. For the forecast, outside of the possibly developing trough of low pressure, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through then weekend, locally fresh offshore Ecuador through tonight. Cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region, with 5 to 7 ft seas spreading northward through the remainder of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas, off the coast of southwest Mexico. Fresh N winds are north of 28N between 120W and 126W, with moderate to fresh NE to E winds elsewhere north of 20N and west of 120W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in northerly swell north of 25N between 118W and 130W. Mainly gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, locally fresh near 09.5N135W, with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, stronger near the outer periphery of Tropical Storm Blas. Seas are 4 to 5 ft from 13N to 21N west of 110W, and mainly 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft will prevail through the week north of 27N between 120W and 130W. Otherwise, outside of Blas, fairly tranquil marine conditions will persist into the weekend, with a dying cold front moving south of 30N Thu night into Fri. $$ KONARIK