000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 15.3N 102.3W at 15/0300 UTC moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 17 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 100W and 106W. Blas should turn more NW Wed, WNW Wed night, then accelerate late this week. Strengthening is forecast, and Blas is forecast to become a hurricane late Wed. Intensification may continue into Thu, for unfavorable conditions cause weakening for the end of the week. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Blas will reach the Mexican coast tonight, leading to life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Off the coast of Central America: Showers and thunderstorms off the coast of El Salvador continue to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection extends from 09N to 16N between 86W and 96W. Current winds are 20 to 25 kt with seas to around 8 ft. Further development of this system is possible while it drifts northwestward, and it could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico during the next several days. Winds and seas will also increase across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W from 03N to El Salvador, moving W around 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave is described in the Special Features section above. A tropical wave is along 95W from Chiapas to NW of the Galapagos Islands, moving W at 5 kt. Convection in the vicinity of this wave is mainly associated with the Special Features described above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon through axis extends from 10N75W, across Nicaragua, to near 13N91W. It then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Blas at 11N111W and continues to 07N120W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 78W and 82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N from 130W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas, off the coast of southwest Mexico, and for low pressure that has the potential for tropical develop S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Away from Tropical Storm Blas, moderate to fresh NW winds continue north of Punta Eugenia, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell off Baja California Norte, 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, locally to 4 ft in the northern Gulf north of 30N. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires is causing some restriction in visible for waters N of Jalisco. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of Blas, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the week, locally fresh offshore Baja California Norte Fri through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh winds may develop Offshore Tehuantepec Fri night, increasing to fresh to strong late Sat night through Sun morning. NW swell will linger offshore Baja California through the remainder of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure offshore El Salvador. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are building offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands with 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell, are 3 to 5 ft offshore Colombia to Costa Rica, and 4 to 6 ft north of there. For the forecast, outside of the possibly developing trough of low pressure, gentle to moderate winds will prevail into the weekend, locally fresh offshore Ecuador Wed and Wed night. Cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region, building seas to 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador tonight, then spreading northward through the remainder of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas, off the coast of southwest Mexico. Fresh N winds are north of 28N between 120W and 126W, with moderate to fresh NE to E winds elsewhere north of 20N and west of 120W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in northerly swell north of 25N between 118W and 133W. Mainly gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, locally fresh near 09.5N135W, with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, stronger near the outer periphery of Blas. Seas are 4 to 5 ft from 13N to 21N west of 110W, and mainly 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft will prevail through the week north of 27N between 120W and 130W. Otherwise, outside of Blas, fairly tranquil marine conditions will persist into the weekend, with a dying cold front moving south of 30N Thu night into Fri. $$ KONARIK