000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142102 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1910 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 14.8N 102.0W at 14/2100 UTC moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently to 15 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 17N101W to 13N98W to 10N100W to 08N111W to 12N105W to 15N116W to 15N103W to 17N101W. Blas is moving toward the north and should turn to the northwest overnight and to the west-northwest by late Wed. Blas is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow with further strengthening possible on Thu. Swells generated by Blas are expected to reach the coast of southwestern Mexico late today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Off the coast of Central America: Showers and thunderstorms off the coast of El Salvador continue to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 16N94W to 14.5N87.5W to 10N86W to 07N90W to 12N97W to 16N94W. Current winds are 20 to 25 kt with seas to around 8 ft. Further development of this system is possible while it drifts northwestward, and it could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days, with a medium potential for tropical cyclone development. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico during the next several days. Winds and seas will also increase across portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. Please read the latest NHC Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 88W, from near the Gulf of Fonseca southward to offshore Nicaragua to just northeast of the Galapagos Islands, moving W at around 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described above. A tropical wave is along 94W from southern Mexico near the Tehuantepec region southward to northwest of the Galapagos Islands, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is described above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N75W to across the Papagayo region to 13N92W, then resumes well southwest of Tropical Storm Blas from 10.5N112W to 07N120W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N120W to 08.5N134W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 128W and 139W, and elsewhere from 03N to 06N between 137W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 78W and 82W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas, off the coast of southwest Mexico. Away from Blas, moderate to fresh NW winds continue north of Punta Eugenia, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell off Baja California Norte, 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, locally to 4 ft in the northern Gulf north of 30N. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires is causing some restriction in visible for waters offshore Jalisco, Nayarit, and Sonora, while early afternoon visible satellite imagery shows thinning stratus offshore and along western Baja California. For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of Blas, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the week, locally fresh offshore Baja California Norte Fri through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh winds may develop Offshore Tehuantepec Fri night, increasing to fresh to strong late Sat night through Sun morning. NW swell will linger offshore Baja California through the remainder of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on trough of low pressure offshore El Salvador. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are building offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands with 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell, are 3 to 5 ft offshore Colombia to Costa Rica, and 4 to 6 ft north of there. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore Colombia and Panama, with additional activity from offshore Papagayo northward due to the trough of low pressure mentioned above. For the forecast, outside of the possibly developing trough of low pressure, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the week and into the weekend, locally fresh offshore Ecuador on Wed. Cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region, building seas to 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador tonight, then spreading northward through the remainder of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Blas, off the coast of southwest Mexico. Fresh to locally strong N winds are north of 28N between 120W and 126W, with moderate to fresh NE to E winds elsewhere north of 20N and west of 120W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in northerly swell north of 24N between 118W and 138W. Mainly gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, locally fresh near 09.5N135W, with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, stronger near the outer periphery of Blas. Seas are 4 to 5 ft from 13N to 21N west of 110W, and mainly 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, locally 8 ft near 03.4S. For the forecast, fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft will prevail through the week north of 27N between 120W and 130W. Otherwise, outside of Blas, fairly tranquil marine conditions will persist into the weekend, with a dying cold front moving south of 30N Thu night into Fri. $$ Lewitsky