067 
AXPZ20 KNHC 140257
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico, near 14N103W at
1006 mb, continues to produce numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection from 10N to 15N between 99W and 109W, along
with strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft. This activity 
continues to show signs of organization, and environmental 
conditions appear conducive for additional development. A 
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while the system moves slowly northwestward off the southwestern
coast of Mexico. Winds and seas are forecast to increase by Tue 
morning offshore Michoacan and Guerrero, and a Gale Warning is in
effect for these areas. This low has a high chance of tropical 
development within 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical 
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 91W, from El Salvador to the Galapagos
Islands, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
N of 10N between 85W and 93W. 

A tropical wave is along 83W, from the western Caribbean Sea 
southward through Costa Rica to near 02N, moving west at around 
5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Gulf of
Panama.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near
10N76W, across the SW Caribbean Sea and Nicaragua, to 14N102W. It
then continues from 13N104W to 08N132W. The ITCZ axis extends
from 08N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 07N to 16N between 92W and 98W and from 06N to 10N 
between 132W and 140W 


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a 
Gale Warning issued in association with a low pressure are
offshore SW Mexico.

The cold front that was approaching Baja California Norte has
dissipated, but moderate to fresh NW continue N of 25N. For the
remainder of the waters, excluding the Gale Warning area depicted
above, winds are gentle, except locally moderate W winds just S 
of the southern tip of Baja California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, with
1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. Smoke from agricultural
fires is causing some restriction in visible for waters offshore
Jalisco, Nayarit, and Sonora.

For the forecast for areas outside of the impacts of the low
pressure offshore SW Mexico, described in the Gale Warning
section above, moderate to fresh N winds and higher seas will
prevail in the NW waters through Fri. Elsewhere, mainly gentle
winds are expected.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon 
trough, with light to locally gentle winds north of the monsoon 
trough. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell, except 3 to
5 ft offshore Colombia. 

For the forecast, trough of low pressure located just to the southwest 
of the coast of Nicaragua is producing a disorganized area of 
showers and thunderstorms. This activity has changed little in 
organization today, but some additional development of this system 
is possible over the next several days as long as it remains 
offshore, moving slowly northwestward near the coast of Central 
America and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast 
to become less conducive for development by the end of this week. 
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains will be possible 
across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Winds 
and seas will also increase offshore El Salvador and Guatemala.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the 
week. Cross equatorial southerly swell will propagate across the 
region, building seas to 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador tonight into 
Tue, spreading northward through the remainder of the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front has dissipated across the far northern waters this
evening, but fresh NE winds continue N of about 25N. Seas N of
28N are 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate mainly N-NE winds prevail, with gentle
to moderate mainly S winds to the south, locally fresh to strong
from 07N to 14N between 97W and 107W. Seas are generally 4 to 7 
ft, highest north of 20N and west of 130W, and near the locally 
fresh to strong winds where they are locally around 8 ft. Seas 
are also around 8 ft south of the Equator between 97W and 120W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds with building 
high pressure, and seas of 8 to 11 ft will prevail north of 26N 
into mid- week. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions will
persist into the weekend.

$$
KONARIK