000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132021 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jun 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred nautical miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico, near 13N102.5W at 1007 mb, continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 99W and 109W. This activity has become a bit more concentrated today, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Current associated winds are 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Winds and seas are forecast to increase by Tue morning offshore Oaxaca and Michoacan, and a Gale Warning is in effect for these areas. This low has a high chance of tropical development within 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 82W, from the western Caribbean Sea southward to across the border of Costa Rica and Panama to near 02N, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. A tropical wave is along 90W, from near the border of Guatemala and El Salvador southward to just northeast of the Galapagos Islands, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N76W to across the Papagayo region to 1007 mb low pressure near 13N102.5W to 08N120W to 08N130W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N130W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm southwest of a line from 06N77W to 17N97W, and from 06N to 10N between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning issued in association with a low pressure are offshore SW Mexico. A dissipating cold front is approaching southern California and Baja California Norte with locally fresh winds and building NW swell behind it. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere offshore Baja California, with moderate SE to S winds in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds exist elsewhere, except moderate to fresh offshore southwestern Mexico around the periphery of the low pressure area mentioned above along with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites, with patchy and thinning stratus noted on early afternoon visible satellite imagery offshore and along southern California to western Baja California. For the forecast, outside of the area of low pressure offshore SW Mexico, the cold front will dissipate over the northern waters tonight. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and building seas in NW swell will follow the front, propagating across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte tonight. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are expected north of Punta Eugenia by Tue and Tue night, lingering through the remainder of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell, except 3 to 5 ft offshore Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across much of the offshore waters north of Ecuador, with isolated to scattered showers possible offshore Ecuador. For the forecast, a trough of low pressure located around a hundred nautical miles southwest of the coast of Nicaragua is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has changed little in organization today, but some additional development of this system is possible over the next several days as long as it remains offshore, moving slowly northwestward near the coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains will be possible across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Southern Mexico through the week, along with increasing winds and seas from offshore Nicaragua to Guatemala. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the week. Cross equatorial southerly swell will propagate across the region, building seas to 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador tonight into Tue, spreading northward through the remainder of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating cold front stretches from 30N117W to 26.5N130W to 28.5N140W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring behind the front per recent scatterometer data, along with building seas in northerly swell, to around 8 ft along 30N. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate mainly N-NE winds prevail, with gentle to moderate mainly S winds to the south, locally fresh to strong from 07N to 14N between 97W and 107W. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft, highest north of 20N and west of 130W, and near the locally fresh to strong winds where they are locally around 8 ft. Seas are also around 8 ft south of the Equator between 97W and 120W. For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate tonight, but will still manage to bring fresh to locally strong N winds with building high pressure in the wake, and seas of 8 to 11 ft north of 26N into mid-week. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions will persist through the week and into the weekend. $$ Lewitsky