000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131548
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jun 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
nautical miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico, near  
12.5N102W, is producing a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 10N to 15N between 99W and 108W, with scattered 
moderate convection elsewhere from 07N to 15N between 96W and 
110W. Nearby winds are currently 20 to 25 kt along with seas of 8
to 10 ft. While earlier satellite-derived winds indicate the low
did not yet have a well-defined center, environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for additional development. A 
tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two 
while the system moves slowly northwestward off the southwestern 
coast of Mexico. Winds and seas are forecast to increase by Tue 
morning offshore Oaxaca and Michoacan, and a gale warning is in 
effect for these areas. This low has a high chance of tropical 
development within 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical 
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 81W, from the western Caribbean Sea
southward across western Panama to just offshore of the border of
Colombia and Ecuador, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Associated
convection is described in the section below.

A tropical wave is along 89W, from near El Salvador southward to
just northeast of the Galapagos Islands, moving west at 10 kt. 
Associated convection is described in the section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near 
10N75W through the Papagayo region to 11N90W to 1007 mb low 
pressure near 12.5N102W to 10N110W to 07N119W to 08N129W. The 
ITCZ axis extends from 08N129W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N
between 77W and 80W, from 06N to 14N between 86W and 93W, and
from 07N to 10N between 134W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a 
Gale Warning issued in association with a low pressure are
offshore SW Mexico.

Moderate NW-N winds are occurring offshore Baja California, with
moderate SE to S winds in the Gulf of California. Light to 
gentle winds exist elsewhere, except moderate to fresh offshore
southwestern Mexico around the periphery of the low pressure area
mentioned above along with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, seas 
are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Some
haze continues to be reported at coastal sites, with patchy to
areas of fog in stratus noted on early morning visible satellite
imagery offshore and along western Baja California.

For the forecast, outside of the area of low pressure offshore SW
Mexico, a cold front will dissipate over the northern waters 
tonight into Tue. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and 
building seas in NW swell will follow the front, propagating 
across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte tonight. Seas
of 6 to 9 ft are expected north of Punta Eugenia by Tue and Tue 
night, lingering through the remainder of the week. 

For the forecast,

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon 
trough, with light and variable winds north of the monsoon 
trough. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell, except 3 to
5 ft offshore Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are occurring across much of the offshore waters 
north of Ecuador, with isolated to scattered showers possible 
offshore Ecuador.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form a 
couple of hundred nautical miles southwest of the coast of 
Nicaragua in a day or two. Some development of this system is 
possible over the next few days as long as it remains offshore, 
moving slowly northwestward near the coast of Central America and
southern Mexico. As the low forms, increased winds and seas can 
be expected offshore from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Tropical 
development of this low is not expected within the next 48 hours,
but there is a low chance of development over the next 5 days. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the 
week. Cross equatorial southerly swell will propagate across 
the region, building seas to 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador tonight
into Tue, spreading northward through the remainder of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating cold front stretches from 30N127W to 28N140W. 
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring behind the front,
along with building seas in northerly swell. Elsewhere north of 
the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate mainly N-NE 
winds prevail, with gentle to moderate mainly S winds to the
south, locally fresh to strong from 07N to 14N between 97W and
110W. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft, highest north of 20N and west
of 130W, and near the locally fresh to strong winds where they
are locally around 8 ft. Seas are also around 8 ft south of the
Equator between 100W and 120W.

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate later today, but
will still manage to bring fresh to locally strong N winds with
building high pressure in the wake, and seas of 8 to 11 ft north
of 26N into mid-week. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine
conditions will persist through the week.

$$
Lewitsky