000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130815
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms are increasing and 
gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad 
area of low pressure of 1007 mb located a few hundred miles 
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico, near 12.5N101.2W. This
low is inducing numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
from 09N to 14N between 96W and 107W, along with strong winds and
7 to 9 ft seas. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form in the next day or two while the system moves 
slowly northwestward off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Winds 
and seas are forecast to increase by Tue morning offshore Oaxaca 
and Michoacan, and a gale warning is in effect for these areas. 
This low has a high chance of tropical development within 48 
hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, N of 02N, moving W at 5
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 07N to 13N between 83W and 96W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 1007 mb low pres 
located near 13N101W to 08N121W. The ITCZ continues from 08N121W
to 06N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the 
tropical wave and low pressure, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 13N to 16N between 107W and 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please sea Special Features section above for details on a Gale 
Warning issued in association with a low pressure offshore SW 
Mexico.

Moderate NW winds are occurring W of Baja California, with
moderate SE to S winds in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle
winds exist elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a cold front will dissipate over the NE 
forecast waters Mon. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and
building seas in NW swell will follow the front. These marine 
conditions will propagate across the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte tonight. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are expected N of 
Punta Eugenia Tue and Tue night. 

For the forecast,

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

To the S of 10N, mainly moderate S to SW winds prevail, except
between 82W and 86W where fresh winds are occurring. To the N, 
winds are light to gentle. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form a 
couple of hundred miles southwest of the coast of Nicaragua in a 
day or two. Gradual development of this system is possible 
through late week while the low moves slowly northwestward near 
the coast of Central America. As the low forms, increased winds 
and seas can be expected offshore from Nicaragua to El Salvador.
Tropical development of this low is not expected within the next
48 hours, but there is a low chance of development over the next
5 days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
the period. Cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to 
propagate across the region with seas of 5-7 ft.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak cold front stretches from 30N125W to 27N140W. Fresh NE
winds are occurring behind the front. Elsewhere N of the ITCZ 
and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate mainly N winds prevail, 
with gentle to moderate mainly S winds to the S. Seas are 
generally 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate today, but bring
fresh to locally strong winds N winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft N 
of 26N into mid- week. 

$$
KONARIK