000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130303
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jun 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms are becoming 
increasingly organized in association with a broad low pressure 
area of 1007 mb located a few hundred miles south of the 
southwest coast of Mexico, centered near 12.7N 100.5W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N
between 95W and 106W. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
become more conducive for further development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form on Tuesday or Wednesday while the 
system moves slowly northwestward off the southwestern coast of 
Mexico. Winds and seas are forecast to increase by Tuesday 
morning offshore Oaxaca and Michoacan, and a gale warning has 
been issued for these areas. This low has a medium chance of 
tropical development within 48 hours and a high chance in the 
next 5 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, N of 02N, moving W at 5
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 07N to 12N between 82W and 95W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1007 mb low pres 
located near 13N100W to 09N122W. The ITCZ continues from 09N122W
to beyond 06N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the
tropical wave and low pressure, scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 107W and 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please sea Special Features section above for details on a Gale 
Warning issued in association with a low pressure offshore SW 
Mexico.

Weak high pressure building from the N is leading to moderate NW
winds W of Baja California and extending south to around Jalisco.
Seas are to 4 to 6 ft across all offshore waters, except for the
Gulf of California where seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail. Gentle SE
winds prevail in the Gulf of California. A cluster of moderate
convection has moved offshore Jalisco. A surface trough is noted
just W of the area, near 30N120W. 

For the forecast, a cold front will dissipate over the NE 
forecast waters on Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 
building seas in NW swell will follow the front. These marine 
conditions will propagate across the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte late on Mon. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are expected N of
Punta Eugenia Mon night through Tue. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

To the S of 10N, mainly moderate S to SW winds prevail, except
between 82W and 86W where fresh winds are occurring. To the N, 
winds are light to gentle. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered moderate convection has moved off the Colombian coast
this evening.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form a 
couple of hundred miles southwest of the coast of Nicaragua 
during the next day or two. Gradual development of this system is
possible through late week while the low moves slowly 
northwestward. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
through the period. Cross equatorial southerly swell will 
continue to propagate across the region with seas of 5-7 ft. 
Additional pulses of SW swell will reach the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Mon into Tue. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak cold front is crossing 30N W of 130W. S of the front,
moderate NW winds prevail N and W of a 25N120W to 15N140W.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate S winds are occurring S of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough, with gentle N winds to the N. Seas are
generally 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate Mon, but bring 
fresh to locally strong winds N winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft N of
26N into mid- week. 

$$
KONARIK