000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122148 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jun 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in association with a broad low pressure area located near 12.5N100W or a few hundred miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted mainly on the W semicircle of the low center from 09N to 13N between 100W AND 105W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Tuesday or Wednesday while the system moves slowly northwestward off the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W, N of 03N, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 80W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1007 mb low pres located near 12.5N100W to 11N110W to 08N127W. The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to beyond 06N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical wave and low pressure, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 80W and 100W, from 10N to 13N between 97W and 100W, and from 13N to 16N between 107W and 111W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas generally in the 3 to 5 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds are also noted in the Gulf of California with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near to the entrance of the Gulf. A cold front is approaching 30N between 130W and 140W while a surface trough crosses near 30N120W. For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate over the NE forecast waters on Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas in NW swell will follow the front. These marine conditions will propagate across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte late on Mon. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are expected N of Punta Eugenia Mon night into Tue. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California through Tue night becoming light and variable by Wed. Winds and seas are forecast to increase along the Mexican coast, roughly between the states of Oaxaca and Michoacan, as a tropical cyclone likely develops offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico Tue or Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... To the S of 10N, mainly moderate S to SW winds prevail, except between 82W and 86W where scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally strong winds. To the N, winds are light to gentle. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form a couple of hundred miles southwest of the coast of Nicaragua during the next day or two. Gradual development of this system is possible through late week while the low moves slowly northwestward. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the period. Cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region with seas of 5-7 ft. Additional pulses of SW swell will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Mon into Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends across the northern forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are noted under the influence of the ridge with seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed NE and NW swell. A cold front will move into the northern-most waters this evening, and will dissipate over the NE part of the forecast region on Mon. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected in the wake of the front. These winds and seas will dominate the forecast waters N of 27N between 118W and 130W by Tue morning. $$ GR