000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jun 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad low pressure area located near 12.5N99.5N or a few hundred miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico is producing a more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Tuesday or Wednesday while the system moves slowly northwestward off the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W/86W, N of 03N, moving W at 5 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 80W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1008 mb low pres located near 12.5N99.5W to 09N110W to 08N123W. The ITCZ continues from 08N123W to beyond 06N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical wave and low pressure, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 80W and 100W, from 08N to 12N between 100W and 105W, and from 13N to 17N between 107W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to locally moderate winds NW to N and seas generally in the 3 to 5 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds are also noted in the Gulf of California with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near to the entrance of the Gulf. For the forecast, by late Mon, fresh to locally strong winds are possible offshore Baja California Norte, and in the northern Gulf of California as the pressure gradient tightens. Seas are forecast to increase to 9 or 10 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Mon night through Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... To the S of 09N, moderate S to SW winds prevail. To the N, winds are light to gentle, except for a pulse of fresh NE winds in the Papagayo region. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. Convection over the waters is associated with the tropical wave described above. For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form during the next few days south or southwest off the coast of Central America. Subsequent gradual development of this system is possible as it moves slowly northwestward. Development is not anticipated in the next 48 hours, but there is a low chance of develop within the next 5 days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the period. Cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region with seas of 5-7 ft. Additional pulses of SW swell will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands into Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak surface trough is noted from 31N119W to 29N121W. The gradient between this trough and higher pressure to the west is inducing moderate to fresh NE winds N of 20N and W of the trough. A similar pressure gradient is leading to moderate NE to N winds N of the ITCZ. To the S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate mainly S winds prevail, with light to gentle, mainly N winds, to the N. Seas in the area of fresh winds are 6 to 7 ft, with the seas over the remainder of the waters averaging 4 to 6 ft. The trough will dissipate today, and a cold front will move into the northern-most waters tonight. The front will also dissipate Mon, but in its wake, fresh N winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft can be expected N of 26N for much of the week. $$ GR