000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120801
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W, N of 03N, moving W at 5
kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
from 05N to 11N between 80W and 87W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1008 mb low pres
located near 13N99W to 08N125W. The ITCZ continues from 08N125W 
to beyond 06N140W. Outside of the convection associated with 
the tropical wave and low pressure, described in the Mexico 
offshore waters section below, scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 87W and 95W. .

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad low pressure area of 1008 mb is located a couple of 
hundred miles south of the SW coast of Mexico, near 13N99W. 
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 07N 
to 14N between 95W and 108W. Some fresh SW winds are occurring 
S of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to become 
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of 
next week while the system moves slowly northwestward off the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of tropical 
formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the next
5 days. This system is likely to bring increasing winds and seas
across the forecast waters in about 24-48 hours. Elsewhere, 
gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas are generally 3 to
5 ft, with seas of 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, by late Mon, fresh to locally strong winds are
possible offshore Baja California Norte, and in the northern
Gulf of California as the pressure gradient tightens. Seas are 
forecast to increase to 9 or 10 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia
Mon night through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

To the S of 09N, moderate S to SW winds prevail. To the N, winds
are light to gentle, except for a pulse of fresh NE winds in the
Papagayo region. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. Convection over
the waters is associated with the tropical wave described above.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form 
during the next few days south or southwest off the coast of 
Central America. Subsequent gradual development of this system is
possible as it moves slowly northwestward. Development is not
anticipated in the next 48 hours, but there is a low chance of
develop within the next 5 days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail through the period. Cross equatorial southerly
swell will continue to propagate across the region with seas of 
5-7 ft. Additional pulses of SW swell will reach the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands into Mon.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak surface trough is noted from 30N121W to 23N125W. The
gradient between this trough and higher pressure to the west is
inducing moderate to fresh NE winds N of 20N and W of the 
trough. A similar gradient is leading to moderate NE to N winds N
of the ITCZ. To the S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate
mainly S winds prevail, with light to gentle, mainly N winds, to
the N. Seas in the area of fresh winds are 6 to 7 ft, with the
seas over the remainder of the waters averaging 4 to 6 ft.

The trough will dissipate today, and a cold front will move into
the northern-most waters tonight. The front will also dissipate
Mon, but in its wake, fresh N winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft can be
expected N of 26N for much of the week. 

$$
KONARIK