000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120216
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, N of 03N, moving W at 5
kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
from 05N to 09N between 81W and 87W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...


The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1008 mb low pres
located near 14N100W to 09N125W. The ITCZ continues from 09N125W
to beyond 06N140W. 

Outside of the convection associated with the tropical wave and 
low pressure, described in the Mexico offshore waters section 
below, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
N of 04N E of 81W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad low pressure area of 1008 mb is located a couple of 
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico, near
14N100W. Disorganized moderate to isolated strong convection
extends from 08N to 14N between 94W and 107W. Some fresh SW winds
are occurring S of the center. Environmental conditions are 
expected to become conducive for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly 
northwestward off the southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a
low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours, and a high
chance within the next 5 days. This system is likely to bring 
increasing winds and seas across the forecast waters in about 
24-48 hours.

Elsewhere, moderate NW winds are ongoing near the west coast of
Baja California, with a pulse of moderate SW winds off the
southern tip of Baja California. The remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters, including the Gulf of California, has light to 
gentle winds. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, with seas of 1 to 3 
ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, by late Mon, fresh to locally strong winds are
possible offshore Baja California Norte, and in the northern 
Gulf of California as the pressure gradient tightens there. Seas 
are forecast to increase to 9 or 10 ft in NW swell N of Punta 
Eugenia Mon night through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

To the S of 09N, moderate S to SW winds prevail. To the N, winds
are light to gentle, except for a pulse of fresh NE winds in the
Papagayo region. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. Convection over
the waters is associated with the tropical wave described above.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form 
during the next few days south or southwest off the coast of 
Central America. Subsequent gradual development of this system is
possible as it moves slowly northwestward. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail through the period. Cross equatorial 
southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region with
seas of 5-7 ft. Additional pulses of SW swell will reach the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Sun night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure centered near 30N140W is dominating waters N
of 15N and W of 122W. A surface trough from 30N121W to 23N125W is
nearly stationary. The gradient between these two features is
leading to fresh NE winds N of 23N between the trough and 135W.
Seas in this area of higher winds are 7 to 8 ft. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of
the ITCZ results in gentle to moderate trade winds, with areas N
of the monsoon trough having mainly light to gentle winds. To 
the south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate S winds 
prevail. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough will dissipate Sun 
morning. The high also dissipate Sun, allowing a weak cold front
to reach the far northern waters Sun night. The front will 
dissipate over the northern forecast waters Mon. Fresh to strong
NE winds and building seas of 8-10 ft will follow the front. 

$$
KONARIK