000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112119
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W, N of 02N, moving W at 5
to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 08N between 82W and 87W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1008 mb low pres
located near 14N96.5W to 09N110W to 08N128W. The ITCZ continues 
from 08N128W to beyond 06N140W. Outside of the convection 
associated with the tropical wave and low pressure, scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 82W,
and from 08N to 17N between 90W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad low pressure of 1008 mb is centered near 14N96.5W. Shower 
activity has changed little in organization since yesterday in 
association with this system. Currently, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed within about 120 nm SE 
quadrant of low center. Environmental conditions are expected to
become conducive for gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle 
part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward off
the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system is likely to bring
increasing winds and seas across the forecast waters in about 
24-48 hours.

Elsewhere, weak pressure gradient over the area supports light 
to gentle NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California.
Similar winds speeds are seen across the remainder of the coast 
of Mexico, and in the Gulf of California. Seas are generally 3 
to 5 ft, with seas of 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected 
W of Baja California tonight into Sun as a ridge builds eastward 
toward the area. By late Mon, fresh to locally strong winds are 
possible offshore Baja California Norte as the pressure gradient 
tightens there. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are also
expected in the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, mainly 
gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Seas are forecast to 
increase to 9 or 10 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Mon night 
through Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

To the S of 09N, gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail. To 
the N, winds are light to gentle, except for a pulse of fresh NE
winds in the Papagayo region. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. 
Highest winds are noted per scatterometer data near the coast of
Colombia due to the convective activity down there. 

For the forecast, fresh NE-E winds are expected in the Papagayo 
region again tonight. Winds from the S may increase in the Papagayo
area and offshore Nicaragua early next week as another low pres 
develops along the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail through the period. Cross equatorial southerly
swell will continue to propagate across the region with seas of 
5-7 ft. Additional pulses of SW swell will reach the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Sun night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 30N140W. The associated
ridge covers mainly the waters N of 15N W of 122W. A surface
trough extends from 30N121W to near 23N125W. Between these two 
features, moderate to fresh N winds prevail with seas of 8 to 9 
ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
in the vicinity of the ITCZ results in moderate trade winds. Seas
are mainly 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough will dissipate tonight into
Sun morning. The high also weakening this weekend, allowing a 
weak cold front to reach on Sun. the front will dissipate over
the northern forecast waters on Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and
building seas of 8-10 ft will follow the front. 

$$
GR