000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111536
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W, N of 02N, moving W at 5
to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted N of 05N between 82W AND 88W. 

A tropical wave previously along 97W has been absorbed by a 1008 mb
low pressure near 14N96W. Details on this low can be found below
in the Offshore Waters of Mexico section. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1008 mb low pres
located near 14N96W to 10N110W to 07N125W. The ITCZ continues 
from 07N125W to beyond 06N140W. Outside of the convection 
associated with the tropical wave and low pressure, scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 03N E of 
82W to the coast of Colombia, and from 08N to 17N between 100W 
and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad low pressure of 1008 mb is centered near 14N96W, producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms from 08N to 15N between 90W 
and 100W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while 
the system meanders off the southwestern coast of Mexico. This 
system is likely to bring increasing winds and seas across the 
forecast waters in about 30-48 hours.

Elsewhere, weak pressure gradient over the area is leading to
light to gentle winds, except for moderate SE winds offshore
Oaxaca and Guerrero and moderate NW winds off the southern tip of
Baja California. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, with 5 to 7 ft
seas in NW swell offshore Baja California Norte, and seas of 1 to
3 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, winds will increase W of Baja California Sat 
night into Sun as high pressure moves E toward the area. By late 
Mon, fresh to locally strong winds are possible offshore Baja 
California Norte. The pressure gradient will increase in the Gulf
of California for the start of next week, leading to moderate to
locally fresh SW winds.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

To the S of 09N, mainly moderate S to SW winds prevail. To the 
N, winds are gentle, except for a pulse of fresh NE to N winds in
the Papagayo region. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the coast, 
from Costa Rica northward. 

For the forecast, fresh NE-E winds are expected in the Papagayo region
early this morning and again tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds will prevail through the period. Cross equatorial southerly
swell will continue to propagate across the region with seas of 
5-7 ft. Additional pulses will reach the waters between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands by Sun night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 30N141W, with a trough
axis extending along 121W/122W, N of 23N. Between these two 
features, moderate to fresh N winds prevail with seas of 8 to 9
ft. Between the high and the ITCZ, moderate trades are noted. To
the N of the monsoon trough, gentle winds prevail, with gentle 
to moderate mainly S winds to the S of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough will dissipate today, with 
the high also weakening this weekend, allowing a weak cold front 
to approach 30N for the start of next week. This front will cause
winds to increase to moderate to fresh out of the NE early next 
week N of 24N. Seas in this region, in a combination of wind waves
and N swell, will reach 7 to 9 ft.

$$
GR