000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110733
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jun 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, N of 02N, moving W at 
5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted N of 05N between 83W and 91W. 

A tropical wave previously along 97W has been absorbed by a 1011
mb low pressure near 14N97W. Details on this low can be found
below in the Offshore Waters of Mexico section. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 1011 mb low pres to 
11N110W to 10N118W. The ITCZ continues from 10N118W to beyond 
06N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical 
wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N 
between 94W and 108W and from 04N to 09N between 131W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad low pressure of 1011 mb is centered near 14N97W, producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms from 11N to 15N between 96W
and 106W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive 
for continued gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form early next week while the system 
meanders off the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system is
likely to bring increasing winds and seas across the forecast 
waters in about 36-48 hours.

Elsewhere, weak pressure gradient over the area is leading to
light to gentle winds, except for moderate SE winds offshore
Oaxaca and Guerrero and moderate NW winds off the southern tip of
Baja California. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, with 5 to 7 ft
seas in NW swell offshore Baja California Norte, and seas of 1 to
3 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, winds will increase W of Baja California Sat 
night into Sun as high pressure moves E toward the area. By late 
Mon, fresh to locally strong winds are possible offshore Baja 
California Norte. The pressure gradient will increase in the Gulf
of California for the start of next week, leading to moderate to
locally fresh SW winds.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

To the S of 09N, mainly moderate S to SW winds prevail. To the 
N, winds are gentle, except for a pulse of fresh NE to N winds in
the Papagayo region. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the coast, 
from Costa Rica northward. 

For the forecast, fresh NE-E winds are expected in the Papagayo region
early this morning and again Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail through the period. Cross equatorial 
southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region with
seas of 5-7 ft. Additional pulses will reach the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Sun night. 


...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 30N140W, with a trough
axis extending along 121W, N of 26N. Between these two features,
moderate to fresh N winds prevail. Between the high and the ITCZ,
moderate trades prevail. To the N of the monsoon trough, gentle
winds prevail, with gentle to moderate mainly S winds to the S of
the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, with an
area of northerly swell leading to seas of up to 8 ft N of 27N 
and E of 128W. 

The surface trough will dissipate today, with the high also
weakening this weekend, allowing a weak cold front to approach
30N for the start of next week. This front will cause winds to
increase to moderate to fresh out of the NE early next week N of
24N. Seas in this region, in a combination of wind waves and N
swell, will reach 7 to 9 ft.

$$
KONARIK