000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110223
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jun 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W, N of 02N, moving W at 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection associated with this wave is
noted offshore Costa Rica. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W from 02N to 15N, moving W
at 5 to 10 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed along this wave
axis near 14N97W. A broad area of scattered moderate convection
is noted N of 11N, including the offshore waters of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, and Guerrero. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 1012 mb low pres to 11N110W
to 08N127W. The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to beyond 06N140W. Outside
of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 102W and 108W, and 
from 04N to 09N between 130W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient over the waters is leading to mainly
light to gentle winds across the waters, although localized areas
of moderate winds are being observed near the coast of Oaxaca and
off the southern tip of Baja California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft,
except for 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Scattered
moderate convection is ongoing S of 22N, within about 120 nm of
the coast. 

For the forecast, winds will increase W of Baja California this 
weekend as high pressure move E toward the area, with some fresh 
winds possible early next week. The pressure gradient will 
increase in the Gulf of California, leading to moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds.

Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure area located a 
couple hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become 
a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for continued gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next 
week while the system meanders off the southwestern coast of
Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a 
low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 
hours, and a high chance through 5 days. This system could bring 
increasing winds and seas across the forecast waters in about 
36-48 hours.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

To the S of 09N, mainly moderate S winds prevail. To the N, winds
are gentle, except for a pulse of fresh NE to N winds in the
Papagayo region. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm of the coast, from Costa Rica
northward. 

For the forecast, fresh NE-E winds are expected in the Papagayo 
region at night through Sat night with seas building to 6-7 ft. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the 
period. Cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to 
propagate across the region with seas of 5-7 ft. Additional 
pulses will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands on Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure in the far NW waters is leading to moderate to
locally fresh anticyclonic winds N of 20N and W of 122W. The
highest winds are just W of a surface trough that extends along
121W to the N of 27N. Moderate NE to N winds are occurring N of
the ITCZ, with mainly gentle winds for the remainder of the
waters. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, with an area of northerly
swell leading to seas of up to 7 ft N of 27N and E of 127W. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will remain in place near
30N140W, and the trough will prevail through the weekend before
dissipating. As the ridge builds east, winds will increase early
next week to fresh N of 25N and E of 130W. 

$$
KONARIK