000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102116 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W/85W north of 02N, moving westward at around 10 kt. The wave is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean, including the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua, and some shower and thunderstorm activity across the offshore waters of Costa Rica. The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W from 02N to 15N, moving westward at about 10 kt. A 1012 mb low pres is analyzed along the wave axis near 14N96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 94W and 99W. Part of this convective activity is affecting the Tehunatepec region. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 1012 mb low pres to 11N110W to 08N127W. The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to beyond 06N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 102W and 108W, and from 04N to 09N between 130W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient between a ridge that dominates the northern forecast waters and a meandering trough over Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California supports light to gentle winds across the offshore waters of Baja California based on recent scatterometer data. Seas are 3 to 5 ft primarily in NW swell within these winds. Gentle to moderate southerly winds remain over the Gulf of California with seas in the 1-3 ft range. Light to gentle winds are over the rest of the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through Sat. Winds will increase some on Sun as high pressure extends eastward. The pres gradient will tighten across the region early on Mon supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds. At that time, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also expected in the Gulf of California but mainly across the central and south parts. A broad and elongated area of low pressure off the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system meanders off the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. This system could bring increasing winds and seas across the forecast waters in about 36-48 hours. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate s to sw winds S of the monsoon trough and mainly light to gentle winds N of it. Seas are generally in the 3-5 ft range. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are expected in the Papagayo region at night through Sat night. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are expected in the Papagayo region at night through Sat night with seas building to 6-7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the period. Cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region with seas of 5-7 ft. Additional pulses will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 30N140W, with associated surface ridge covering mainly the waters N of 15N W of 122W. A surface trough is analyzed roughly along 120W and N of 24N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate NE winds north of the ITCZ to about 14N. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge while light and gentle winds prevail near the trough axis. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range based on altimeter data. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will meander near 120W through the weekend, then dissipate as a ridge builds eastward across the northern forecast waters reaching the offshore waters of Baja California. $$ GR