000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101539
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jun 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W north of 02N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. The wave is generating scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean,
including the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua, and some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the offshore waters of Costa Rica.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W from 02N to 14N, moving 
westward at about 10 kt. An area of showers with embedded
thunderstorms is near the northern end of the wave axis affecting
the Tehuantepec region. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N97W to 08N127W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N127W to beyond 06N140W. Outside of the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 17N 
between 102W and 109W, and from 04N to 08.5N between 131W and 
137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient between a ridge that dominates the
northern forecast waters and a meandering trough over Baja
California peninsula and the Gulf of california supports gentle 
northwest winds off Baja California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft off Baja 
California Norte, and 3-5 ft elsewhere due to south to southwest 
swell. Gentle to moderate south winds remain over the Gulf of 
California with seas in the 1-3 ft range. Light to gentle winds 
are over the rest of the open waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northwest winds off Baja
California Norte will gradually diminish through Sat. A broad 
area of low pressure is forecast to form off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while the system 
meanders off the southwestern coast of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Mainly gentle southwest winds prevail over the waters, although 
there is a moderate easterly winds pulsing offshore the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range due to a south to 
southwest swell. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection 
are over most of Central America from northern Costa Rica to the 
southwest part of Honduras. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will continue through the
period. Southerly swell will move into the Central American and 
Ecuador offshore waters later in the weekend into early next 
week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 30N137W, with 
associated surface ridge covering mainly the waters N of 15N W of
120W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting gentle to moderate northeast to east winds north of 
the ITCZ to 24N. An area of moderate to fresh north winds is over
the waters north of 25N between 120W-128W. Seas are 8 ft within
this area of winds near 30N. By Sat morning, winds will increase
some in the same area, with 8 ft seas propagating across the
waters N of 28N between 124W and 127W. 

As the aforementioned broad area of low pressure develops, 
expect increasing winds and seas mainly in the SE quadrant of the
low center Sat into Sun, particularly from 07N to 11N between 
99W and 104W.

$$
GR