000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100735
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jun 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W north of 02N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Associated convection is noted below in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W from 02N to 14N, moving 
westward at about 10 kt. Associated convection is noted below in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1010 mb over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea near 10N77W, across northern Panama,
to 10N90W, to 10N119W. It then transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 07N129W to beyond 140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 89W to 98W and from
04N to 10N between 120W to 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient between ridging offshore of Baja
California and lower pressure over the Gulf of California 
peninsula is supporting gentle northwest winds off Baja 
California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft off Baja California Norte, and 
3-5 ft elsewhere due to south to southwest swell. Gentle to 
moderate south winds remain over the Gulf of California with seas
in the 1-3 ft range. Light to gentle winds are over the rest of 
the open waters off Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are within 150 nm of the Mexican coast to the east of 100W. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northwest winds off Baja
California Norte will gradually diminish through Sat. A broad 
area of low pressure is forecast to form off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, and some tropical 
development is possible this weekend or early next week. This 
may bring an increase in winds and seas to these forecast waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Mainly gentle southwest winds prevail over the waters, although 
there is a moderate easterly winds pulsing offshore the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range due to a south to 
southwest swell. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection 
are over most of Central America from northern Costa Rica to the 
southwest part of Honduras. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will continue through the
period. Southerly swell will move into the Central American and 
Ecuador offshore waters later in the weekend into early next 
week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 29N138W, with associated
surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high 
center. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting gentle to moderate northeast to east winds north of 
the ITCZ to 24N. An area of moderate to fresh north winds is 
over the waters north of 25N between 119W-128W, with seas of 5-7 
ft. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate southwest winds are noted south of the monsoon trough 
to 06N between 94W-108W. Seas are 5-7 ft in this area due to a 
south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are
south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with seas generally in the
4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, the 5-7 ft seas over the waters north of 25N 
between 119W-128W will build to 6-8 ft tonight as a pulse of 
northwest swell begins to propagate through those waters. The 
swell will decay Sat allowing for seas to subside to mostly 5-7 
ft. A cold front is expected to move over the northwest waters on
Sun followed by fresh northeast winds that will help to sustain 
seas peaking to around 7 ft over a section of the northwest 
waters.

$$
KONARIK