000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100240
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W north of 02N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Associated convection is noted below in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W from 02N to 14N, moving 
westward at about 10 kt. Associated convection is noted below in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1010 mb over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea near 10N77W, across northern Panama,
to 10N90W, to 10N119W. It then transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 07N129W to beyond 140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm S of the trough between 96W and
98W, within 120 nm N of the trough between 104W and 106W, from
09N to 11N between 94W and 96W, and within 60 nm N of the trough
between 99W and 102W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient between ridging offshore of Baja
California and lower pressure over the Gulf of California 
peninsula is supporting gentle northwest winds off Baja 
California. Seas are 5-7 ft off Baja California Norte, and 3-5 
ft elsewhere due to south to southwest swell. Gentle to moderate
southeast winds remain over the Gulf of California with seas in 
the 1-3 ft range. Light to gentle winds are over the rest of the 
open waters off Mexico.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the waters south 
and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Similar activity is 
along the coast from just west of Puerto Angel to near Petatlan 
in the state of Guerrero. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northwest winds off Baja 
California Norte will gradually diminish through Sat. Gentle to 
moderate southeast winds over the Gulf of California will become 
light to gentle in speeds Fri night. A broad area of low pressure
is forecast to form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during 
the next day or so, and some tropical development is possible by 
early next week. This may bring an increase in winds and seas to 
these forecast waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate southwest continue south of 11N, with light 
to gentle S winds to the N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range due to 
a south to southwest swell.

Numerous moderate to strong convection are over most of Central 
America from northern Costa Rica to the southwest part of 
Honduras. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will continue through the
period. Mainly moderate southwest winds are expected to develop 
Fri south of Costa Rica and change little into early next week. 
Southerly swell will also move into the Central American and 
Ecuador offshore waters later in the weekend into early next 
week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 29N138W, with associated
surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high 
center. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting gentle to moderate northeast to east winds north of 
the ITCZ to 24N. An area of moderate to fresh north winds is 
over the waters north of 25N between 119W-128W, with seas of 5-7 
ft. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds are noted south of the
monsoon trough to 06N between 94W-108W. Seas are 5-7 ft in this 
area due to a south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with 
seas generally in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, the 5-7 ft seas over the waters north of 25N 
between 119W-128W will build to 6-8 ft late Fri as a pulse of 
northwest swell begins to propagate through those waters. The 
swell will decay Sat afternoon allowing for seas to subside to 
mostly 5-7 ft. A cold front is expected to move over the 
northwest waters on Sun followed by fresh northeast winds that 
will help to sustain seas peaking to around 7 ft over a section 
of the northwest waters.

$$
KONARIK