000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092232 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2232 UTC Thu Jun 09 2022 Updated Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W north of 02N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Associated convection is noted below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W from 02N to 14N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Associated convection is noted below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1010 mb over the southwestern Caribbean Sea near 10N77W to across central Panama and to 08N83W, then northwestward to 14N98W and to 10N110W to 09N117W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N128W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 96W-98W, and also within 120 nm north of the trough between 104W-106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 94W-96W, within 60 nm north of the trough between 99W-102W and between 131W-133W, and within 30 nm south of the trough between 125W- 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient between ridging offshore of Baja California and lower pressure over the Gulf of California peninsula is supporting gentle northwest winds off Baja California, except for gentle to moderate northwest winds west of Baja California Norte. Seas are 5-7 ft off Baja California Norte, and 3-5 ft elsewhere due to south to southwest swell, except for slighter higher seas of 4-6 ft south and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle northwest winds are over the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate southeast winds remain over the Gulf of California with seas in the 1-3 ft range. Light to gentle winds are over the rest of the open waters off Mexico with seas ranging 4-5 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the waters south and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Similar activity is just inland Mexico from just west of Puerto Angel to near Petatlan in the state of Guerrero. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are offshore Puerto Angel. For the forecast, wind and sea conditions off Baja California Norte and Cabo San Lucas will change little through Sat. The gentle to moderate southeast winds over the Gulf of California will become light to gentle in speeds on Sat. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. This may bring an increase in winds and seas to these forecast waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds continue south of 11N, and light to gentle north of 11N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range due to a south to southwest swell. Large clusters of numerous moderate to strong convection are over most of Central America from northern Costa Rica to the southwest part of Honduras. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly on the weak side, are over the offshore waters north of Ecuador. For the forecast, little change in conditions are expected through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected to develop Sat and continue into early next week. Southerly swell will also move into the Central American and Ecuador offshore waters later in the weekend into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 29N138W, with associated surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to 24N. An area of mainly fresh north winds is over the waters north of 25N between 119W-128W, with seas of 5-7 ft. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are noted south of the monsoon trough to 06N between 94W-108W. Seas are 6-8 ft in this area due to a south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, the aforementioned 6-8 ft seas will subside to less than 8 ft early Fri as winds become gentle to moderate. The 5-7 ft seas over the waters north of 25N between 119W-128W will build to 6-8 ft late Fri as a pulse of northwest swell begins to propagate through those waters. The swell will decay Sat afternoon allowing for seas to subside to mostly 5-7 ft, with a few small pockets of seas to 8 ft. A cold front is expected to move over the northwest waters on Sun followed by fresh northeast winds that will help to sustain seas peaking to around 7 ft over a section of the northwest waters. $$ Aguirre