000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092110 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 09 2022

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W north of 02N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Associated convection is noted below 
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W north of 02N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Associated convection is noted below 
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1009 mb over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea to across central Panama to 08N83W
and northwestward to 14N99W to 10N110W to 09N118W, where 
overnight ASCAT data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ 
and continues to 07N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough 
between 102W-104W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm
south of the trough between 91W-95W, between 97W-100W and within
120 nm south of the trough between 100W-104W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

A weak pressure gradient between ridging offshore of Baja
California and lower pressure over the Gulf of California 
peninsula is supporting gentle to moderate northwest winds off 
Baja California Norte. Gentle northwest winds are noted off of 
Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 5-7 ft off Baja California Norte, and 
3-5 ft elsewhere due to south to southwest swell, except for
slighter higher seas of 4-6 ft south and southwest of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle northwest winds continue 
over the remainder of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to 
moderate winds remain over the Gulf of California with seas in 
the 1-3 ft range. Light to gentle winds are over the rest of the 
open waters off Mexico with seas ranging 4-5 ft.

For the forecast, wind and sea conditions off Baja California 
Norte and Cabo San Lucas will change little through Sat. A broad 
area of low pressure is forecast to form off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. This may 
bring an increase in winds and seas to these forecast waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of 11N, and light
to gentle north of 11N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S to SW
swell.

For the forecast, little change in conditions are expected
through Friday. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are 
expected to develop Sat and continue into early next week. 
Southerly swell will also move into the Central American and 
Ecuador offshore waters later in the weekend into early next 
week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1024 mb is centered near 29N140W, with 
associated surface ridge extending southeastward to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity 
of the high center. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient between 
the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
is supporting gentle to moderate northeast to east winds north 
of the ITCZ to 25N. Light to gentle winds prevail north of the 
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are noted south
of the monsoon trough to 06N between 95W and 110W. Seas are 6-8 
ft in this area due to a south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range through most of the area. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned 6-8 ft seas will subside by
early Fri afternoon as winds become gentle to moderate. 
Meanwhile, an area of mainly fresh north winds is over the 
waters north of 25N between 119W-128W. Seas of 8-9 ft in mixed 
northeast and northwest swell are within this area of fresh 
winds. These seas will gradually subside Sat afternoon and the 
winds will remain about the same as a cold front approaches the 
area.

$$
Aguirre