000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090929
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jun 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W north of 02N, moving 
west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is noted below in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 02N, moving 
west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is noted below in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua
border near 11N86W to 14N99W to 10N113W to 07N126W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N126W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 85W and 103W and from
04N to 08N between 122W to 129W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient between ridging offshore of Baja
California and lower pressure over the Gulf of California 
peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja
California Norte. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted off of
Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 5-7 ft off Baja California Norte, and
4-6 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle NW winds prevail across the 
rest of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail over the Gulf of California with seas in the 1-3 ft 
range. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the 
open waters off Mexico with seas ranging 4-5 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California
Norte and Cabo San Lucas will diminish tonight as the high 
pressure west of the area weakens. Elsewhere, winds and seas 
will be quiescent through the rest of the week. Low pressure may 
develop over the waters south of southern Mexico this weekend, 
bringing an increase in winds and seas. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of 11N, and light
to gentle north of 11N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S to SW
swell.

For the forecast, little change in conditions are expected
through Friday. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are 
expected to develop Sat and continue into early next week. 
Southerly swell will also move into the Central American and 
Ecuador offshore waters later in the weekend into early next 
week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 29N138W, with 
associated surface ridge extending SW to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high 
center. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ to 25N. 
Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough
to 07N between 100W and 110W. Seas are 6-8 ft in this area. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range through most of the
area. 

For the forecast, the 8 ft swell will subside by tonight as 
winds become gentle to moderate. Meanwhile, an area of fresh to 
locally strong winds will move into the northern waters W of Baja
California Fri and Sat. This will bring northerly swell into the
area, raising seas to 8 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W 
before subsiding by Sun. Moderate to locally fresh winds are 
expected to linger as a cold front approaches the area. 

$$
AReinhart