000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090344
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jun 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W north of 02N, moving 
west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is noted below in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W north of 02N, moving 
west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is noted below in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of the Costa 
Rica/Nicaragua border near 11N86W to 14N98W to 11N111W to 
07N128W. The ITCZ extends from 07N128W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 07N 
and E of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 14N 
between 92W and 126W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient between ridging offshore of Baja
California and lower pressure over the Gulf of California 
peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja
California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the
rest of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail over the Gulf of California with seas in the 1-3 ft 
range. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the 
open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off Baja 
California Norte, and 5-6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off 
Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California
Norte will diminish by Thu night as high pressure weakens. 
Elsewhere, winds and seas will be quiescent through the rest of 
the week. Low pressure may develop over the waters south of 
southern Mexico this weekend, bringing an increase in winds and 
seas. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of 11N, and light
to gentle north of 11N. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, little change in conditions are expected
through Friday. Winds and seas will then decrease slightly
through Sat before increasing once again Sunday. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 29N139W, with 
associated surface ridge extending SW to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high 
center. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ to 25N. 
Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Gentle
to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas
are in the 4-7 ft range through most of the area, with altimeter
data showing 8 ft seas near 09N107W. Northerly swell will move 
into the northern waters, raising seas to 8 ft north of 25N 
between 120W and 130W Fri and Sat before subsiding by Sun.

$$
AReinhart