000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060928
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jun 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Nicaragua near 12N87W
to 12N102W to 10N115W to 06N131W. The ITCZ extends from 06N131W
to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 06N to 15N and E of 94W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 97W and 117W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A subtropical ridge is located west of the Baja California 
peninsula. This, combined with climatologically lower pressures 
over Mexico, is supporting fresh to strong NW winds across the 
offshore waters N of Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh NW winds 
are noted N of 24N in the offshore waters, with gentle to
moderate winds S of 24N. Seas of 5-7 ft in NW swell remain along
the peninsula offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, the
latest ASCAT pass showed areas of moderate to fresh winds in the
northern and central Gulf. Light to gentle winds are observed 
elsewhere in the Gulf, with seas to 3 ft. Light to gentle 
variable winds with seas ranging 4-5 ft across the remainder of
the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail off the
Baja California peninsula through Wed night with seas 5-7 ft. By
Thu, winds will become light to gentle as seas gradually 
subside, continuing into the weekend. The Gulf of California 
will experience mostly light to gentle winds, with some locally 
moderate winds through Wed. Winds will increase later in the week
to moderate to locally fresh. Moderate to fresh SW winds will 
start affecting portions of the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshore 
waters tonight through Tue. A new set of long period swell will 
also move into the area tonight and start to subside by Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The overnight ASCAT pass showed moderate to fresh SW winds are 
over portions of the Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also noted off the
southern Colombia coast, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 
Light to gentle S to SW winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 
generally 4-6 ft across these offshores in S to SW swell. 
Numerous thunderstorms are noted across the Central American 
offshores and off the Colombia coast. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will 
generally prevail across the Central American offshores through 
midweek. A new set of SW swell will move into the Guatemala and 
El Salvador offshore waters later today and will subside by Tue 
night. Winds across Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will become
gentle to moderate later today and will prevail through the 
week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1023 mb subtropical ridge centered near 27N138W continues to 
support fairly tranquil weather conditions N of 10N and W of 
115W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are north of the ITCZ to 
24N and W of 135W. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere 
N of the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are S of 
the monsoon trough between 94W and 115W with seas 8-9 ft. Light 
to gentle S winds are noted south of the monsoon trough W of 115W
and along the ITCZ. Seas range 4-6 ft across the remainder of the
area. 

For the forecast, the strong winds south of the monsoon trough 
will persist today and diminish by tonight, with the fresh winds
continuing through Tue. The 8-9 ft seas will move N into the 
Mexico and Central American offshores tonight. This area of swell
will subside by Tue night. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds in N 
swell will persist W of the Baja California offshore waters 
through the week. Otherwise, no major changes are expected 
elsewhere through the middle of next week. 

$$
AReinhart