000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060341
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 10N98W to a 1010 mb low near 10N116W to 07N130W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between
100W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to
14N and E of 98W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A subtropical ridge is located west of the Baja California 
peninsula. This, combined with climatologically lower pressures 
over Mexico, is supporting fresh to strong NW winds across the 
offshore waters N of Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to locally fresh 
NW winds are noted elsewhere offshore the remaining peninsula. 
Seas of 5-7 ft in NW swell remain along the peninsula offshore 
waters. Light to gentle SE winds are along the Gulf of 
California, with locally moderate winds, and seas are to 3 ft. 
Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 4-5 ft range 
dominate the remainder Mexican offshore waters in decaying SW 
swell.

For the forecast, low pressure along western Mexico will deepen 
tonight. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the 
region and support fresh to strong NW winds across the offshore 
waters N of Cabo San Lucas through Mon morning. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail off the Baja California coast through Thu 
morning. Seas along the Baja offshores will range from 5-7 ft 
through Wed and then will gradually subside through Thu. Gentle 
to moderate SE winds are forecast along the Gulf of California 
through Thu with seas to 3 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds will 
start affecting portions of the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshore 
waters on Mon night through Tue evening as new long period swell 
approaches that region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW winds are over portions of the Nicaragua, 
Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia offshore waters with 4-6 ft seas
in SW swell. Moderate to locally fresh S winds are between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with 4-6 ft in SW swell. Light
to gentle variable winds with seas of 3-4 ft are elsewhere.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted off the
Colombia coast from 02N to 07N and E of 80W. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are also noted across the Central America 
offshore waters associated with an active monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, an increase in winds and seas off the coast of
Ecuador are expected tonight with a new round of SW swell. The S
to SW winds will become mainly fresh while seas increase to 6 
ft. These conditions are forecast to continue through Mon 
morning. SW swell to 8 ft will reach the waters off Guatemala and
El Salvador by Mon night accompanied with an increase of winds 
to moderate to fresh speeds. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are
expected elsewhere through the middle of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb subtropical ridge centered near 27N135W continues to 
support fairly tranquil weather conditions N of 10N and W of 
120W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are north of the ITCZ to 
21N and E of 120W. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere 
N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are S 
of the monsoon trough between 94W and 108W. Light to gentle S
winds are noted south of the monsoon trough W of 108W and along
the ITCZ. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds are expected to 
develop from 05N to 10N between 94W and 110W with southwest swell
tonight. Winds will diminish by Tue morning with the swell 
moving into the Central American and Mexican offshores. Moderate
to fresh N to NE winds in N swell are also expected near the 
Baja California offshore waters Mon into Tue. Otherwise, no major
changes are expected elsewhere through the middle of next week. 

$$
AReinhart